Prediction Real Madrid vs Villarreal 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for La Liga on 04/10/2025

Match outlook — Bernabéu drama in round 8

Real Madrid return to the Santiago Bernabéu with momentum and a clear target: keep the pressure on the table leaders. Seven La Liga rounds in, Los Blancos sit second with 18 points from seven games, a record that reads six wins and a solitary loss. Their recent Champions League romp — a 5-0 victory where Kylian Mbappé earned the match’s top rating — underlines their offensive potency and the confidence flowing through the squad. Real’s campaign numbers show a team that creates chances in abundance (an attacks average of 130.86 and 123 total shots across matches), and they have been particularly resolute at home, conceding only once on home soil so far.

Villarreal arrive in Madrid unbeaten in domestic danger, occupying third and boasting 16 points. Their form is solid: they have picked up five wins, one draw and a single loss in the league, with a recent 2-2 draw in the Champions League against Juventus where Nicolas Pépé stood out. The Yellow Submarine have shown they can score on the road — 3 goals away in the league so far — and their defensive ledger (just 5 goals conceded overall) is respectable. But their attacking profile, while effective, produces fewer overall actions than Real (attacks average 93.57), suggesting they may be outgunned in a high-intensity Bernabéu showdown.

Key trends and historical context

The head-to-head narrative tilts slightly in Real Madrid’s favour given the season’s previous meeting in March, where Real won 2-1 away at Villarreal. Statistically, Real’s home fixtures have tended to be lower-risk for clean sheets — they’ve recorded three clean sheets and a low BTTS rate at home (25% BTTS). Villarreal’s away matches have seen both teams score more often (away BTTS 66.67%), but stepping into Madrid’s fortress is a different proposition; La Liga odds reflect that reality, with the bookmakers pricing Real as strong favourites.

Both sides come off midweek European fixtures, but the freshness and emphatic nature of Real’s last result — a 5-0 win — gives them the psychological edge. Villarreal’s recent draw with Juventus shows spirit and capability, yet the attacking volume and finishing consistency tilt the balance toward the hosts.

Betting suggestion

Based on form, attacking volume and home strength, the recommendation is to back Real Madrid to win (1) in the 1X2 market. Bookmakers offer around 1.45 for the home victory, reflecting a market-implied probability near 69%. For a single-market play, Real Madrid to win is the most supported and data-aligned option.