Prediction Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shonan Bellmare 2025 – Betting Tips for the J-League Cup on 07/09/2025

Match context and recent momentum

The quarter-final tie at EDION Stadium between Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Shonan Bellmare carries fresh drama: the teams most recently met on 3 September in what turned out to be a five-goal thriller, Shonan edging out Sanfrecce 3-2. That result still sits in the memory of both camps, but the broader pictures for the two sides tell different stories. Sanfrecce arrive with a largely encouraging run — six wins in their last ten outings and a sequence that reads L-D-W-W-L-W-D-W-W-W — a string that underlines their ability to respond after setbacks. Shonan, by contrast, have struggled for consistency; their last ten results show just one victory and six defeats, a run that has left them vulnerable despite flashes of attacking intent.

Tactical clues from the numbers

The raw statistics paint an intriguing contrast. Sanfrecce’s matches have tended to be productive: they average around 8.7 shots with 12 attempts on target across the sample provided, and their fixtures show a higher over-2.5 ratio (66.67%). They have conceded goals too — no clean sheets in the snapshot given — but create a healthy number of dangerous attacks. Shonan’s figures are striking in volume: 61 total shots and 24 on target across their recent matches suggest they press and probe relentlessly, and they also carry three clean sheets in the dataset, indicating an ability to shut down opponents on occasion. Yet that attacking volume has not translated consistently into wins, reflected in their poor league form and multiple defeats in August and September.

Friday’s return at EDION Stadium will therefore be a clash of Sanfrecce’s home rhythm and Shonan’s shot-heavy approach. The quarter-final context raises the stakes: the recent 3-2 result proves this tie can be open and high-scoring, but Sanfrecce’s steadier returns over the wider sample and the comforts of home are meaningful. The previous meeting also highlighted individual sparks — Kosuke Kinoshita and Rio Nitta each earned top match ratings in that encounter — but overall momentum leans toward the home side.

Prediction and betting suggestion

Bookmakers have adjusted accordingly: the market prices Sanfrecce Hiroshima as clear favourites (1.40, implying a 71.43% probability). Given Sanfrecce’s stronger form over the last ten matches, their home advantage at EDION Stadium, and the market confidence shown by that price, the most balanced play for this fixture in the 1X2 market is to back Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win. Betting suggestion: Back Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win (1X2 market).