A mismatched Group Stage tie in Sousse
São Tomé and Príncipe welcome Malawi to the Stade Olympique de Sousse on October 13 in what shapes up to be a one-sided Group Stage encounter in the 2026 CAF World Cup Qualifiers. The headline numbers tell the story: São Tomé arrive rooted to the bottom of their group with zero points from nine matches, four goals scored and a staggering 26 conceded. The most recent result — a 6-0 defeat to Tunisia — underlines how porous their defence has been. Across their campaign they have yet to record a victory and have managed only two draws in a run of ten matches reflected in the form line. Confidence will be thin and morale fragile for the home side.
Malawi, by contrast, arrive with a far healthier tuning of results and belief. Sitting fourth in the group with 10 points from eight matches, they come off a 2-2 draw with Liberia that showed both resilience and an ability to find the net when required. Historical context also leans in Malawi’s favour: the sides met in this competition previously and Malawi claimed a 3-1 win, suggesting the visiting team know how to impose themselves against São Tomé. Statistically, Malawi average more attacks and dangerous attacks per game and boast a better record of clean sheets and goal control than their hosts. Bookmakers mirror that view emphatically, pricing Malawi as heavy favourites.
What to expect on the pitch
Tactically, expect Malawi to dominate possession and chances, pushing São Tomé to defend deep and seek rare counter opportunities. São Tomé’s defensive frailties mean they are likely to concede again; their home goals conceded tally is already alarming. Malawi’s attacking workrate and previous H2H success make an away victory the most probable outcome. The likely script is a controlled Malawi performance converting a couple of chances while keeping São Tomé’s influence to a minimum. Given São Tomé’s recent 0-6 hammering and the visitors’ capacity to score and absorb pressure, the game could produce multiple goals, but the clearest edge remains a Malawi win.
Betting suggestion: 1X2 – Away (Malawi) to win. The market odds heavily favour Malawi (around 1.20), reflecting a high probability outcome based on form, defensive records and the earlier 3-1 H2H victory. A bet on Malawi captures the most probable result given the available data.