Match context and mood
Tunisia arrive in Tunis with momentum and a defensive record that demands respect, while São Tomé and Príncipe will be desperate to stop a slide that has seen them pick up zero points so far in this group. This Group Stage clash at the Hammadi Agrebi Stadium on 10/10/2025 looms as a stark contrast in form and quality: Tunisia top the section with 22 points from eight matches, an unbeaten run that includes seven wins and an astonishing eight clean sheets, while São Tomé and Príncipe sit rooted to the foot of the table with zero points, four goals scored and twenty conceded. The scene is set at a venue that can hold 60,000 and, on paper and in recent results, this looks like a one-sided encounter.
How the numbers tell the story
Tunisia’s statistical superiority is clear across the board. They have produced 88 total shots with 46 on target in the campaign so far, a conversion rate that underlines their ruthlessness in the final third across home and away fixtures. Their defence has conceded nothing in the group, a remarkable feat in this qualification cycle that includes eight clean sheets. São Tomé and Príncipe, by contrast, have managed only 46 total shots and 16 on target across their matches, and their defence has been repeatedly breached, conceding 20 goals. The head-to-head history adds to Tunisia’s confidence: the last meeting recorded in the qualifiers ended 4-0 in favour of Tunisia, illustrating the gulf between the teams when they have met in competitive circumstances.
Recent match reports reinforce those contrasts. São Tomé and Príncipe have been hammered in several fixtures recently, including a 3-0 defeat to Namibia and narrow losses elsewhere that highlight their struggle to find form and resilience. Tunisia head into this game after a run of mostly positive results, and their latest narrow away victory over Equatorial Guinea shows they can grind out wins when needed while maintaining their defensive standards. Individual note-worthy performers from recent matches include Kelve Semedo for São Tomé and Príncipe and Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane for Tunisia, who were rated as top performers in their respective last outings.
Prediction and betting outlook
Given the overwhelming imbalance in form, defensive solidity and recent head-to-head evidence, the clearest outcome to back is a Tunisia victory. The away side’s unbeaten record, clean-sheet mastery and goal-scoring efficiency combine to make them strong favourites to leave Hammadi Agrebi Stadium with three points. For those looking for a single, decisive market, the safest and most data-backed option is the 1X2 market.
Betting suggestion: 1X2 — Tunisia to win.