Prediction SC Freiburg vs TSG Hoffenheim 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Bundesliga on 28/09/2025

Match outlook: Europa-Park set for an entertaining affair

The Bundesliga returns to Freiburg’s Europa-Park Stadion on 28/09/2025 as SC Freiburg welcome TSG Hoffenheim in round 5 of the 2025/2026 regular season. With Bastian Dankert appointed to take charge and both sides sitting on six points apiece, this fixture carries the familiar edge of a mid-September showdown where form, momentum and confidence begin to define the early table. Freiburg arrive buoyed by a Europa League victory over Basel on 24 September — a 2-1 success led by a standout performance from Patrick Osterhage — while Hoffenheim come off a chastening 4-1 defeat to Bayern but have shown they can hit back, notably with a 4-2 win at Union Berlin earlier in the campaign.

Form, firepower and statistical signals

Freiburg’s recent run reads like a team finding rhythm at home: three wins in their last five domestic outings, including a 3-0 trip to Werder Bremen and a 3-1 dismantling of Stuttgart, balanced against heavier defeats at Köln and Augsburg earlier in the season. Hoffenheim have been more volatile but dangerous in attack — their sequence contains big-score wins such as 4-0 at Hansa Rostock and the 4-2 away victory at Union Berlin, interrupted by defeats to Eintracht and Bayern. The raw numbers underline one clear theme: goals. Both teams register 100% for over 2.5 goals in their recent sample, and Freiburg’s match logs show eight goals scored and conceded across four league games; Hoffenheim sit on eight scored and ten conceded. Shot and attack metrics favour open play as well — combined totals show high shot counts and strong attacking averages, hinting this game is more likely to be a contest of finishing than a tactical stalemate.

Head-to-head and momentum

The most recent Bundesliga meeting in April produced a 3-2 win for Freiburg, a tight, end-to-end encounter that finished 3-2 after being 2-2 at the interval. That result is telling: these teams know how to carve each other open, and the psychological edge of that earlier victory will be in the heads of Freiburg’s supporters as they return to Europa-Park. Hoffenheim’s ability to respond after setbacks — exemplified by Muhammed Damar’s bright rating in their last big loss — suggests they will not sit back and defend a narrow lead if they find early chances.

Prediction and betting suggestion

All evidence in the available data points toward an open, goal-rich match. Both sides have delivered high-scoring affairs this season, their over/under profiles are identical at 100% for over 2.5 goals in recent matches, and their attacking metrics support a game where chances will be plentiful. While Freiburg are marginal favorites in the match winner market, the safer, more value-driven angle here is the goal market. Betting suggestion: back Over 2.5 goals. This pick aligns with recent form, head-to-head precedent and the attacking shot volumes shown by both teams.