Prediction SD Eibar vs Castellón 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for La Liga 2 on 12/10/2025

A tight La Liga 2 clash in Eibar

The Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa will host a compact, high-stakes fixture as SD Eibar welcome Castellón on October 12, 2025, in round 9 of the La Liga 2 regular season. On form and on paper this is a meeting of near twins: both teams sit level on 11 points, each with three wins, two draws and three defeats from eight matches. That parity promises a keenly contested afternoon on a ground that seats just over 8,000 spectators — a setting that usually amplifies home advantage and pressure in equal measure.

Recent momentum and what it means

Eibar arrive off a narrow defeat at Ceuta, a game in which Peru Nolaskoain stood out as the best-rated performer for the hosts despite the result. Their pattern at Ipurúa has been respectable; eight goals scored at home against only two conceded underline a side that can be compact defensively and productive in familiar surroundings. Their overall shots numbers and attacking metrics suggest they create opportunities — more than 100 attacks per match and a solid share of shots inside the box — but results have been mixed, a reflection of a team still seeking consistency.

Castellón, meanwhile, bring confidence from a convincing 3-1 victory over Sporting Gijón. That result capped a sequence of strong offensive displays: the away side has been more prone to open, high-scoring affairs, reflected in five of eight matches clearing the over 2.5 goals threshold and healthy attacking numbers, including six goals scored on the road. Álex Calatrava earned plaudits as Castellón’s best performer in the last outing, and his influence will be key if the visitors are to breach Eibar’s tidy home defence.

Head-to-head and market signals

There’s a recent memory of Castellón doing the job against Eibar earlier in the season with a 2-0 home win in February. That result adds a layer of caution for the hosts, who cannot afford complacency. Yet bookmakers give Eibar the edge: the match-winner market prices the home side at roughly 2.25 (implied probability ~44%), with the draw and away win trading at longer odds. That market view mirrors the home/away goal splits — Eibar’s sturdier home defensive record contrasts with Castellón’s more adventurous, and occasionally leaky, away profile.

Betting suggestion

Based on home defensive solidity at Ipurúa, the bookmaker lean toward the hosts, and Castellón’s entertaining but inconsistent away form suggests goals could come but not necessarily enough to tilt the result. The best single-market pick here is a 1X2 selection: back SD Eibar to win. This choice aligns with Eibar’s strong home goals-conceded record, the bookies’ favoritism, and the marginal home advantage in a very even table.