Prediction Serbia vs Latvia 2026 – Betting Tips for the WC Qualification Europe on 16/11/2025

Context and stakes

Serbia returns to Gradski stadion Dubočica on 16 November 2025 to host Latvia in a Group Stage showdown that carries more than just pride. Sitting third in the group with 10 points from seven matches, Serbia still has the chance to consolidate a push for qualification momentum, while Latvia, fourth with five points, need positive results to climb from the lower reaches. The modest capacity of the ground — 8,136 — promises an intense atmosphere where home advantage could be decisive for the hosts.

Form, recent meetings and tactical outlook

Recent results paint a picture of two teams trending in different directions. Serbia’s form shows a mixed but resilient sequence: they arrive after a 2-0 defeat to England but also recorded wins over Andorra and Latvia earlier in the campaign. Across seven group games Serbia has scored seven and conceded nine, producing three clean sheets and averaging roughly 13.4 total shots per match — a sign of offensive intent. Latvia, by contrast, have managed only one win, two draws and four defeats in the group, with a goal tally of four and a leaky defense that’s conceded 13. Their latest outing was a goalless friendly draw with North Macedonia, which at least suggests they can be stubborn, but earlier 0-5 defeat to England and a 0-1 loss at home to Serbia underline the gulf in quality.

The head-to-head from September 6 this year finished 0-1 in Serbia’s favor, a low-scoring affair that hints at Serbia’s ability to grind out narrow wins. Serbia’s goalkeeper earned the match recognition in the most recent England defeat — Predrag Rajković was the standout performer with a 7.05 rating — indicating a defense that can be organized even against superior opposition. Latvia’s best-rated player in their last match, Daniels Balodis (6.5), shows they have individual contributors but perhaps not the collective depth to dominate a hostile away assignment.

What the statistics suggest

Serbia averages more than 13 shots per match vs Latvia’s 7.1, and they create nearly 97 attacks per game compared to Latvia’s 72.4 — a clear advantage in volume and territory. Serbia’s three clean sheets and slightly better goal output imply they are capable of controlling games at home, while Latvia’s defensive struggles and modest strike rate make them vulnerable away from home. The combination of historical low scores between the pair and Serbia’s sharper attacking profile points toward a tight but controlled home victory.

Betting suggestion

Given the data, the recommended market is 1X2: back Serbia to win. The hosts’ home edge, superior attack volume, prior 0-1 victory in the head-to-head and recent individual defensive performances make Serbia the logical selection for a straight-match winner bet.

For readers wanting to refine market choices and understand how different options suit games like this, consult Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets, and remember the importance of temperament when staking on close qualifiers via How to have emotional control when placing bets?