Prediction Sevilla vs Villarreal 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for La Liga on 23/09/2025

Form and recent meetings

Sevilla welcome Villarreal to the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán on 23 September in a clash that already smells of tension. Both sides arrive off wins from the weekend — Sevilla edged Deportivo Alavés 2-1 while Villarreal came from behind to beat Osasuna 2-1 — but the headlines tell different stories beneath the surface. Sevilla sit eighth with seven points from five matches, a side oscillating between moments of attacking promise and defensive fragility. Villarreal, third with ten points, display a more consistent points return and a sharper cutting edge overall, even if their formline reads mixed when you strip it down to wins and losses. The most recent La Liga meeting between these two ended 4-2 in Villarreal’s favour back in May, a scoreline that underlines how both teams can be productive when given space.

Tactical clues and key stats

Looking deeper, the numbers point toward a contest that could tilt in Villarreal’s favour despite the match being in Sevilla’s backyard. Villarreal’s attack metrics jump off the page: an aggregate of 86 total shots and 29 on target across the season so far, alongside a dangerous-attacks average of 61.2 and a healthy corners average near 6.6. Sevilla are no slouches in creation — they average nearly 96 attacks and show a respectable shots-on-target figure — but they’ve been more porous defensively at home, conceding four goals in their home fixtures while scoring only three. That contrast is crucial. Villarreal have been clinical at home and conservative away, but their overall balance and ability to generate chances make them a threat even on the road.

Discipline and momentum also matter: Sevilla’s recent patch includes draws and mixed results that suggest inconsistency, while Villarreal have managed to string key victories when needed. Individual performances from matchweek standouts like Rubén Vargas for Sevilla and Pape Gueye for Villarreal offer sparks, but this is likely to be decided by which unit imposes its style for longer stretches.

Verdict and betting suggestion

Bookmakers give the edge to Villarreal and the data largely supports that assessment. Their superior shot volume, chance creation and current league position make them the smarter pick for an away result despite playing at Sánchez Pizjuán. For a clean, data-driven play, the best single-market suggestion here is a 1X2 bet: back Away — Villarreal to win at the quoted price of 2.32. It’s a value angle that reflects Villarreal’s offensive teeth and Sevilla’s uneven home form while respecting the recent head-to-head that showed Villarreal can both score and control the occasion.