Match preview: David vs Goliath at Montgomery Waters Meadow
The lights go up at Montgomery Waters Meadow on 17/02/2026 as Shrewsbury Town welcome promotion-chasing Notts County in a League Two showdown that pits a side scrapping for survival against one cruising in the top end of the table. Shrewsbury arrive with mixed emotions: a morale-boosting 3-1 win over Swindon last time out that featured an eye-catching performance from N. Freeman, but their league position — 19th with only 29 points from 31 games — tells a story of inconsistency and defensive fragility. Notts County, fourth in the table with 58 points, have been the model of mid-season momentum, rattling off a run that featured wins over Barrow, Gillingham and Fleetwood and a resilient 1-1 draw at Bromley in their last outing where Jodi Jones impressed.
Shrewsbury’s season has been punctuated by an inability to keep opponents quiet; 51 goals conceded across 31 matches and just 28 scored underline their precarious balance between sporadic attacking promise and a leaky backline. At home they have scored 16 but conceded 17 — numbers that suggest they can nick moments but struggle to impose control. Notts County, by contrast, combine a reliable goals return with defensive solidity: 47 scored, 31 conceded overall, and a comfortably positive away scoring record. The form lines are stark: Shrewsbury’s patchy sequence of W-W-L-D-L-L-W-L-L-L contrasts with Notts’ rich vein of D-W-W-W-W-W-W-L-D-L — a side that finds a way to grind out results.
Tactical angles and what to expect
Expect Notts County to take the game to Shrewsbury. Their superior attacking metrics — close to 92 attacks per game and healthy shots-on-target numbers — suggest a pattern of sustained pressure. Shrewsbury will try to harness the wings and exploit set-piece moments, looking to the confidence gleaned from their recent victory to unsettle the visitors early. Yet conceding more than 1.6 goals per away game for Notts is unlikely; they look well-drilled and clinical enough to punish mistakes.
For bettors looking at timing and market selection, understanding when to strike on goal markets can be crucial — especially in fixtures where one side is dominant and the other vulnerable. If you want to brush up on timing nuances before placing a goals bet, check this primer on The right time to place bets on goal markets. For broader perspective on odds and probability, it’s also useful to revisit how bookmakers price outcomes: How the betting odds work in sports betting.
Prediction and betting suggestion
This is a classic away-favourites fixture. Bookmakers reflect that sentiment with Notts County trading around 2.20 to win, while the home side sits at 3.25 and the draw at 3.20. Given the form differential, table positions and defensive records, the most logical single-market play is to back Notts County in the 1X2 market. A straight-away win for Notts County offers value: they are the more reliable, better-balanced team and should be able to control the match without overcommitting. Bet suggestion: Notts County to win (1X2) at ~2.20. Keep stakes sensible and consider a small-unit play if you prefer a safer approach — the balance of probability and price makes the away win the cleaner call here.
