Prediction Sierra Leone vs Ethiopia 2026 – Betting Tips for the CAF World Cup Qualifiers on 09/09/2025

Group tussle with plenty on the line in Freetown

Sierra Leone welcome Ethiopia on 09/09/2025 in a match that could be decisive for both sides in this CAF World Cup Qualifiers group. The home side sit third with nine points from seven matches and arrive with a mixed but stubborn set of recent results — pockets of resilience punctuated by a couple of setbacks. Their latest outing ended in a 1-1 draw with Guinea-Bissau, and Kei Kamara featured as the standout performer in that game. Sierra Leone have shown they can grind out results: two wins, three draws and two defeats in group play, with eight goals scored and eight conceded overall. At home they’ve been slightly more effective offensively, netting five of those eight goals.

Ethiopia, meanwhile, occupy fifth place on six points. Their path through the campaign has been uneven; a heavy 6-1 win over Djibouti sits alongside two tough 2-0 reversals to Egypt this year. Recent form reads as fragile — six defeats over the last ten matches according to the form summary — but they have demonstrated an ability to produce goals in patches and picked up a morale-boosting win away to Congo DR earlier in the cycle. Ahmed Reshid was cited as Ethiopia’s best player in their most recent defeat to Egypt, a reminder that individual flashes can still influence tight contests.

How this one is likely to play out

The matchup suggests a cautious affair rather than an all-out shootout. Historical context between these sides includes a goalless draw in the earlier meeting during this qualifying campaign, underlining the possibility of a low-scoring encounter. Statistically both teams have seen around half of their fixtures produce goals at both ends, but Sierra Leone’s matches have produced over 2.5 goals more often than Ethiopia’s. Ethiopia bring more volume in attack metrics — higher averages in total shots, attacks and dangerous attacks — yet that hasn’t consistently translated into better results or a markedly superior goals tally.

Sierra Leone’s slightly better group position and steadier point return give them the psychological edge at home. The bookmakers reflect that edge by pricing the home win as the most likely result, with the market offering value on a Sierra Leone victory while still acknowledging the chance of a draw or an Ethiopian upset.

Betting suggestion

For a single, clear market pick, back Sierra Leone to win (1X2) at the available odds of 2.10. The home side’s superior standings, recent resilience in tight games, and a previous 0-0 meeting that suggests a close contest make the home win the most balanced selection from the provided markets.