Prediction Somalia vs Mozambique 2026 – Betting Tips for the CAF World Cup Qualifiers on 14/10/2025

Match preview: David and Goliath on paper — but context matters

Somalia's trip to Stade Mustapha Tchaker in Blida for this Group Stage showdown with Mozambique looks like a clash where one side has everything to gain and the other everything to lose. This is a Round 10 fixture in the CAF World Cup Qualifiers and the numbers paint a stark picture: Somalia sit rock-bottom in the group with a solitary point from nine matches, three goals scored and 19 conceded, while Mozambique occupy a comfortable third, having amassed 15 points with 13 goals scored. Somalia’s most recent outing produced a 0-3 reverse to Algeria and their run reads as eight defeats and only two draws in their last ten — a formline that leaves them fighting for pride more than points. Mozambique arrive off a narrow 1-2 defeat to Guinea but still carry the more convincing body of work overall and a recent head-to-head win over Somalia in 2024 that ended 2-1.

Key trends and tactical snapshots

The shot and chance metrics underline Mozambique’s greater offensive output: 60 total shots versus Somalia’s 46 across comparable data, with Mozambique sustaining higher averages in attacks and dangerous attacks. Mozambique’s corner and shots averages suggest they create more opportunities and are likelier to test opposing keepers. Somalia have struggled to convert and to hold at the back; their solitary clean sheet and heavy goals-against tally underscore defensive vulnerability. Both teams have seen a fair share of matches finishing with over 2.5 goals this campaign, particularly Mozambique whose over-2.5 percentage sits above 60%. The head-to-head memory of Mozambique winning 2-1 also gives them a mental edge in this pairing.

Prediction and betting rationale

On form, fundamentals and attacking threat, Mozambique are the logical pick to take all three points. Somalia’s inability to win in the group, their scant scoring record and their recent 0-3 loss to a much stronger Algeria side suggest they will struggle to contain Mozambique’s more dangerous attacking instincts. Mozambique’s recent fixtures show they are capable of both scoring and conceding, but their capacity to produce goals away from home and to influence the game for large spells makes them favorites to seize this one.

Betting suggestion: Back Mozambique to win (1X2). Mozambique’s superior group position, higher goals-for tally, positive recent head-to-head and clearer attacking edge make the away victory the most solid market choice based on the available data.