Match outlook and context
The semi-final tie at the Stade du Pays de Charleroi promises a taut, competitive night as Sporting Charleroi host Union Saint-Gilloise on 04/02/2026. This is a knockout fixture with a vacuum of room for error: Charleroi arrive on the back of a rich run of domestic form, having turned heads with consecutive 2-0 victories against Standard Liège and Club Brugge and a recent 2-0 win away at Sint-Truiden. Union Saint-Gilloise, meanwhile, have shown they can grind out results when it matters, edging out Club Brugge 1-0 in their most recent outing and producing narrow defensive displays against strong opposition in recent weeks.
There’s weight to the statistics that both coaches will be poring over. Charleroi’s attacking numbers on paper are imposing: 33 total shots in their recent sample, 14 of them on target, and a healthy corners average of 7.33 suggesting territorial pressure and consistent probing in the opposition box. Clean sheets have been a feature of their home displays, with three shutouts recorded. Union counter with a slimmed-down but efficient profile — 21 shots overall with 12 on target and a slightly lower corners average, but the visitors have scored five away goals in the dataset and conceded sparingly, which explains why bookmakers have priced them as favourites.
Tactical battle and recent meetings
The head-to-head from December ended 1-1, a reminder that these teams find ways to cancel each other out when met under normal circumstances. Charleroi’s style this season has combined controlled attacking sequences — reflected in a higher dangerous attacks average — with defensive compactness at home. Union Saint-Gilloise’s recent slate highlights narrow wins and a pragmatic approach; their best-player ratings in recent fixtures point to match-winners emerging in tight moments. With Simon Bourdeaud'hui appointed to control the semi-final, expect a game that could pivot on set-piece moments and fine margins rather than wild open play.
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Betting suggestion: 1X2 – Back Union Saint-Gilloise to win (Away) at 2.00. The bookmaker market gives Union a 50% implied probability, which reflects their recent ability to grind victories and their clinical conversion on target. Charleroi’s home strength is real, but the combination of Union’s defensive resilience away, their recent triumph over quality opposition, and the value on offer at even money makes the away win the most compelling single-market pick for this semi-final.
