Prediction St. Louis City vs Dallas 2025 – Betting Tips for the Major League Soccer on 07/09/2025

Match outlook

Sunday’s fixture at Energizer Park promises an intriguing, if messy, MLS encounter as St. Louis City welcome Dallas in what feels like a clash between two middling sides desperate for consistency. The stadium might only hold just over six thousand fans, but with St. Louis sat 14th after 28 games and Dallas 12th after 27, this is more than a local derby — it’s a chance for both teams to arrest poor runs and pick up precious points in the closing stages of the regular season. The referee assigned is Allen Chapman, and both teams arrive with very different recent rhythms: St. Louis have seen heavy defeats and a handful of narrow wins, while Dallas have leaned on draws and occasional flashes of attacking promise.

Form and recent meetings

St. Louis City’s recent results read like a rollercoaster tilted towards the low end — a string of losses punctuated by the odd win. Their last five results include a 2-3 home loss to Houston and a 3-2 reverse away at Vancouver, underlining a team that can score but struggles to shut up shop; they have conceded 50 goals this season and have only five clean sheets. Dallas, on the other hand, have been hard to beat at times but difficult to trust. Their last matches produced two 1-1 draws and a solid 2-0 win over Portland, and they hold a slightly healthier points total. The last head-to-head between these sides was emphatic: Dallas ran out 3-0 winners in July, an outcome St. Louis will be keen to avenge.

Statistical angle

Numbers paint this as a contest likely to produce chances and goals. St. Louis’ home numbers show a tendency for open games: a high over-2.5 percentage and more than 60% of their home fixtures featuring both teams on the scoresheet. They average a higher volume of shots and dangerous attacks than Dallas, suggesting they will push forward at Energizer Park. Dallas concede frequently on the road and have shown their own attacking capacity, meaning they are capable of exploiting space and contributing to a high-scoring match. The market currently nudges St. Louis as favourites at roughly 1.97, with the draw and away options priced higher — a reflection of the bookmaker believing home advantage and attacking intent give St. Louis the edge despite their inconsistent form.

Prediction and betting suggestion

Expect an open, end-to-end game rather than a tactical stalemate. Both sides have shown frailties at the back and a willingness to score, and the data supports a match with multiple goals. For that reason, the cleanest market to target is the goal market: back Over 2.5 goals. The combination of St. Louis’ 67.86% over-2.5 home rate, frequent BTTS outcomes, and Dallas’ ability to both score and concede gives Over 2.5 the best backing from the available markets. Keep stakes sensible given both teams’ inconsistency, but the value lies in betting on goals rather than playing the 1X2 with such slim margins.