Prediction St. Pauli vs TSG Hoffenheim 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the DFB Pokal on 28/10/2025

Match context

The Millerntor will be buzzing for this DFB Pokal second-round clash as St. Pauli welcome TSG Hoffenheim on 28 October 2025. On paper this looks like a classic cup tie where formlines and recent meetings will carry extra weight — and the numbers point clearly in one direction. St. Pauli arrive on the back of a bruising run of results, their recent five-match reports in the Bundesliga all ending in defeat and a wider run showing just two wins in ten. Hoffenheim, by contrast, have been the steadier side, boasting six wins in their last ten and arriving off a convincing 3-1 victory over Heidenheim.

Form and recent meetings

The most recent showdown between these sides in the league came barely a week ago and it was Hoffenheim who imposed themselves, a 3-0 win that will still be fresh in the minds of both camps. That scoreline underlines two facts: Hoffenheim can turn St. Pauli over decisively and St. Pauli have struggled to find answers against them. St. Pauli’s last outing ended 2-0 against Eintracht Frankfurt and the club’s home form in recent fixtures has failed to inspire confidence. Hoffenheim’s players arrived with momentum; their last match produced a standout performer in Bazoumana Touré, whose 8.27 rating reflected a decisive attacking display.

What the numbers say

Bookmakers are painting this as a tight tie — the away win is offered at 2.50 while a home victory sits at 2.65 and the draw at 3.40 — but those slim margins conceal a deeper edge for Hoffenheim. Stat lines supplied show Hoffenheim converting opportunities with frequency in recent matches and carrying a healthier attack profile than St. Pauli, whose shot and goal metrics hint at a team struggling to create and finish consistently. The Millerntor’s atmosphere could lift St. Pauli, but form and the recent head-to-head suggest the visitors will enter the tie with belief and clear tactical advantage.

Final take

Cup competitions can be fertile ground for surprises, but all evidence in the data supplied — recent form, the latest meeting, and bookmaker probabilities — stacks in favour of the visitors. Expect Hoffenheim to approach the cup with intent and to carry enough quality to edge a St. Pauli side that looks fragile right now.

Betting suggestion: Back TSG Hoffenheim to win (Away) in the 1X2 market at 2.50. This selection aligns with Hoffenheim’s superior recent form, their 3-0 league win over St. Pauli earlier this month, and the bookies’ short but meaningful lean towards the visitors.