Match overview and context
Stevenage return to The Lamex Stadium on 20/01/2026 to host Bolton Wanderers in a League One clash that carries more than three points — it offers a measuring stick for both clubs as the season enters its business end. Stevenage sit eighth with 37 points from 24 matches, having struggled for consistency lately: five defeats in their last ten, including a heavy 3-0 reverse at Exeter City on 17 January where Exeter’s D. Phillips earned top billing with a 7.2 rating. Bolton arrive in better league form and higher in the table (fifth, 42 points) after a narrow 1-0 win at Wigan, a game in which Josh Sheehan stood out with an 8.08 rating.
The setting at Broadhall Way — a compact 6,722-capacity arena — often favours intimate, tight encounters. Referee Stephen Parkinson will take charge, and both teams know the margins are small in this phase of the campaign.
Recent form and statistical edges
Numbers favour Bolton on attack volume and chance creation. Their season totals show far more shots and dangerous attacks than Stevenage, and while Bolton have conceded 18 away goals this season, their overall firepower (33 goals scored) and higher shots average suggest they can unsettle Stevenage’s backline. Stevenage’s home record tells a slightly different story: only six goals conceded at home and eight clean sheets indicates a unit capable of frustrating opponents on their own turf — but recent results reveal cracks, most notably the 3-0 loss to Exeter.
Head-to-head history is fresh and balanced: the teams drew 1-1 in May 2025. Bolton’s latest odds of 2.12 and a bookmaker-implied probability around 47% mark them as favourites, while Stevenage are priced at 3.50. Both sides show modest rates for high-scoring affairs this season — over 2.5 goals sits under 40% for each — hinting that a tight affair is likelier than a goal-fest.
Tactical read and prediction
Expect Bolton to press their numerical advantage in chances and look to exploit space on the counter, while Stevenage will aim to make the match compact and force set-piece situations inside a small stadium. Given Stevenage’s recent defensive solidity at home tempered by a run of poor results, and Bolton’s superior attacking metrics and recent confidence from their Wigan win, the balance tilts towards an away victory.
Final call: Bolton Wanderers to win. The 1X2 market gives value on Bolton given form, attacking superiority and momentum from their latest result. For those weighing goal markets, the profile also supports an under 2.5 goals selection in case Stevenage’s home defensive resilience keeps the scoreline tight.
For background on choosing the right markets, see Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets, and for practical staking and value-building guidance consult How to set values for sports betting and how to start creating a bankroll.
Betting suggestion: Back Bolton Wanderers to win (1X2) at the quoted price (2.12), with an alternative conservative play of Under 2.5 goals if you prefer a lower-variance option.
