Prediction Sturm Graz vs Nottingham Forest 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Europa League on 06/11/2025

Match context and mood in Graz

Graz’s Merkur Arena will host a compelling Europa League showdown as Sturm Graz welcome Nottingham Forest on 06/11/2025. The Austrian side arrive with mixed signals: group play shows one win and two defeats, three goals scored and five conceded, while domestic results have been a rollercoaster. Recent outings include a narrow 2-1 reverse at SK Rapid on 02/11/2025 — a match in which Maurice Malone was singled out with the best player rating for the visitors — and a dramatic 4-3 cup victory away at Blau-Weiß Linz earlier in October. Sturm’s attacking intent is evident in their shot volume and shots inside the box, but defensive fragility is also clear: no clean sheets in the highlighted sample and an away goals conceded figure that underlines vulnerability.

Nottingham Forest’s temperament and numbers

Nottingham Forest travel with a slightly healthier group position and a point advantage in the table. Group data shows the Reds with one win, one draw and one loss, and six goals for versus five conceded. Their recent Premier League draw with Manchester United (2-2) on 01/11/2025 showcased fight and a late response, with Murillo earning praise as the match standout. Statistically, Forest bring greater offensive pressure to the contest: more total shots, more shots on target, superior corners average and higher dangerous attacks average. That attacking edge, paired with an overall stronger shots profile, explains why bookmakers make Forest favorites.

Tactical implications and what to expect

This is shaping up to be an open game. Sturm Graz will want to leverage the familiarity and atmosphere of the Merkur Arena — a compact venue with a 16,764 capacity — and hope to turn their decent attacking metrics into goals. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, look more composed in transitional play and are creating chances at a higher rate. The statistical signals lean toward a match with meaningful attacking moments from both sides: both teams register a 50% BTTS indicator in the provided data, and the over 2.5 goals percentage sits near 66.7% for the datasets shown, hinting at a contest where goals are likely.

Final reckoning and betting suggestion

Bookmakers give Nottingham Forest a clear edge (1.68, ~59.5% implied probability) and the detailed attacking numbers back up that leaning. While Sturm Graz can threaten on home soil, the balance of shots, dangerous attacks and recent resilience in tight fixtures suggests Nottingham Forest are the side most likely to leave Graz with three points. For readers wanting to refine staking and market choice, consider refreshing your process with a primer on Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets and remember the psychology behind decisions by reading How to have emotional control when placing bets?

Betting suggestion: Back Nottingham Forest to win (Away) at the quoted price (1.68). This 1X2 pick aligns with the markets and the statistical edge shown in shots, dangerous attacks and bookmaker probabilities.