Group-stage decider in Casablanca: Burkina Faso slight favourites but Sudan dangerous
Casablanca's Stade Mohamed V will stage a tense Group Stage finale on 31 December as Sudan and Burkina Faso meet with identical three-point hauls and contrasting trajectories. On paper the market leans toward the Burkinabé — the latest odds show Burkina Faso trading around 1.91 for the away win — and the numbers behind that price tell a persuasive story. Burkina Faso arrive with a sharp attacking profile in recent months: more total shots, more shots inside the box, a higher average of dangerous attacks and an abundance of corners. Their tournament form is mixed after a narrow defeat to Algeria, but the team’s underlying activity suggests they create the clearer openings.
Sudan, meanwhile, carry momentum from a narrow 1-0 win over Equatorial Guinea in their most recent outing and will take heart from that result. Their path through the group has been scrappy: one goal scored, three conceded, and a reputation for low-scoring, tight affairs. The lone clean sheet recorded in recent stats shows Sudan can be organized when required, and the reminder of a head-to-head victory back in 2012 allows them psychological confidence — though that encounter is long in the past.
Tactical snapshot and match temperament
This is likely to be a battle between Burkina Faso’s proactive offensive tendencies and Sudan’s compact, risk-averse approach. The statistical gulf in attacking actions — Burkina’s higher dangerous-attacks average and corner count against Sudan’s modest numbers — points toward an away side that will probe and press. Expect Burkina to dominate territorial play and force Sudan into their counter-attacking game. Discipline could be a factor as well; Burkina Faso average more fouls per game, a sign of intensity that can both disrupt and concede set-piece chances.
For bettors considering broader strategy and market timing, it’s worth refining your approach with guidance on when to strike on goal markets: The right time to place bets on goal markets. And for those managing emotion and bankroll across tight tournament fixtures, a useful read is How to have emotional control when placing bets?.
Prediction and betting suggestion
Given Burkina Faso’s superior attacking metrics, recent winning sequence in build-up fixtures, and the bookmaker pricing that reflects a clear edge, the most logical single-market selection is a 1X2 punt on Burkina Faso to win. The away side’s 1.91 price combines reasonable value with supporting data: more shots (30 vs 18), more shots inside the box, higher dangerous-attack figures and a superior corners average, all suggesting they will create the decisive moments. Sudan’s resilience and recent victory make this far from a certainty, so size your stake accordingly and consider trimming exposure if the match becomes cagey early on.
