Match snapshot and context
Sunderland welcome Burnley to the Stadium of Light on February 2, 2026, in a Round 24 clash that could shape both teams’ momentum in the Premier League. Referee Paul Tierney will oversee the game in front of a 48,707-capacity ground where Sunderland sit comfortably midtable in 11th with 33 points, while the visitors are battling near the foot of the table in 19th on just 15 points. The contrast on paper is clear: Sunderland arrive as the bookmakers’ favorite with a 1.73 home price and a probability near 58%, while Burnley are long shots at 5.00. Recent head-to-head history is slim but instructive—Burnley won the earlier meeting 2-0 in August—so Sunderland will be keen to assert themselves on home soil.
Form, trends and what the numbers say
Sunderland’s recent run has been mixed but generally resilient; they have not been easy to beat at home, recording seven clean sheets across the season and showing solidity in defensive phases with only nine home goals conceded. Their last outings produced a 3-1 loss at West Ham but also a comeback win against Crystal Palace, evidencing an unpredictable but tenacious group. Burnley, by contrast, carry defensive fragility into this fixture, having conceded 44 goals in 23 matches—the league’s warning siren. Offensively Burnley have managed 13 away goals, meaning they do find the net on the road even if they struggle to keep it out.
Both teams’ goal patterns make this an intriguing scoring duel. Sunderland’s home matches have featured Both Teams To Score in 63.6% of games, and Burnley’s away profile shows BTTS at 64.3%. While Sunderland have a lower over-2.5 rate (39.1%) compared to Burnley’s 52.2%, the crossover of Sunderland’s dangerous attacks average (42.26) against Burnley’s porous defence suggests chances will be created.
Tactical takeaways and prediction
Expect Sunderland to control territory and press higher given their greater home attacking output and slightly better defensive record. Burnley will likely rely on quick transitions and set-piece opportunities to exploit gaps, a strategy that has produced goals for them this season even amid defensive woes. The presence of figures like Brian Brobbey, who featured prominently in Sunderland’s previous match, and Martin Dúbravka, Burnley’s standout performer in their draw with Tottenham, are recent reminders that individual moments can tilt this contest.
Given the statistical leanings and bookmaker pricing, the sensible match outcome leans towards a Sunderland victory. However, the stronger signal here is in goals markets: both teams have shown a tendency to be involved in matches with goals at either end this season, especially when Burnley travel.
For bettors looking to refine timing and market selection, consider reading The right time to place bets on goal markets and broaden your analytical toolbox with Learn about some of the tools that can help with analysis before staking.
Betting suggestion
Recommended market: Goal market — Both Teams To Score: YES. Rationale: Sunderland’s high BTTS rate at home combined with Burnley’s reciprocal away BTTS tendency makes a BTTS selection compelling and value-friendly compared with the short home price. With Sunderland likely to press and Burnley able to find the net on the road despite defensive lapses, backing Both Teams To Score captures the most probable match narrative while offering better returns than simply siding with the home win.
