Prediction Swansea City vs Nottingham Forest 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Carabao Cup on 17/09/2025

Match build-up: Carabao Cup intrigue at the Swansea.com Stadium

A crisp mid-September evening in Swansea sets the stage as Swansea City welcome Nottingham Forest to the Swansea.com Stadium on 17/09/2025 in Round 3 of the Carabao Cup. With John Busby in the middle and a capacity crowd of just over 20,800 possible, this tie carries the flavours of cup unpredictability: a Championship side keen to assert home advantage against a Premier League opponent that arrives under pressure and looking to right recent wrongs. Swansea’s recent run has shown resilience — a string of draws and narrow wins that keep them competitive in the lead-up to this knockout date — while Nottingham Forest’s results have oscillated, with heavy defeats offset by flashes of potency.

Swansea’s form and home profile

Swansea arrive with a string of results that underline their ability to both create chances and grind out outcomes. Recent match reports show Swansea produced a 2-2 draw with Hull City on 13 September and earlier turned over Sheffield Wednesday 2-0; their sequence reads D-W-D-W-W-L-L-W-D-L, reflecting inconsistency but real offensive bite. The underlying numbers reinforce that attacking intent: across the sample available Swansea have racked up 36 total shots with 11 on target, and five corners on average. Notably, Swansea’s home profile suggests goals are likely — goalsScoredHome sits at four while goalsConcededHome is two, and the data points to both teams finding the net in all recorded home fixtures (BTTS home percentage 100%). Ben Cabango’s 7.36 rating in the most recent outing highlights that individuals are stepping up for Swansea when it matters.

Nottingham Forest’s recent picture and Cup outlook

Nottingham Forest bring contrasting Premier League experiences into the cup: a stinging 3-0 loss to Arsenal on 13 September followed earlier by a convincing 3-1 win over Brentford and a string of draws and setbacks. Their form line — L-L-D-W-D-D-L-L-W-D — signals a side capable of scoring but also vulnerable, particularly on the road. The historical H2H reminder from 2022, when Forest dismantled Swansea 5-1, is an echo that this tie could tilt either way; Murillo’s 6.72 rating in the Arsenal game is the solitary individual figure available from their recent fixtures.

What to expect and the odds narrative

Bookmakers make Nottingham Forest the favorite for this tie, with an away price around 1.63 and a quoted probability in the low 60s. Swansea, priced out at 5.00, will be the underdogs but carry real attacking metrics at home that suggest they won’t be overawed. Given Swansea’s tendency to see both teams score in home matches and Nottingham’s mixed defensive record on the road, the picture points toward a competitive cup tie with goals at both ends rather than a cautious stalemate.

Betting suggestion: For this fixture the most compelling market from the available data is the goal market: back Both Teams to Score — Yes. Swansea’s home matches show BTTS at 100% in the sample, and Nottingham’s recent results include both scoring and conceding in several outings. Between an away win priced as favorite and a likely open cup contest, the safer, value-driven angle is BTTS — Yes, expecting a lively encounter with goals from both sides.