Prediction Uganda vs Somalia 2026 – Betting Tips for the CAF World Cup Qualifiers on 08/09/2025

Context and recent form

The stage is set for an intriguing but one-sided looking Group Stage clash as Uganda prepare to host Somalia on 08/09/2025 at the Stade de la Réunification in Douala. On paper and in the numbers Uganda arrive with momentum and clear upward trajectory inside this pool: second in the group with 12 points from seven matches, four wins to their name and a recent 4-0 demolition of Mozambique that underlined their attacking potential. Allan Okello stood out in that victory with the best player rating of 7.45, a sign that Uganda’s creative sparks are able to translate into decisive moments.

Somalia, by contrast, come to Douala rooted to the bottom of the table. One point from seven matches, no wins and a run of results that includes a heavy 0-3 reverse to Guinea in their most recent outing. Farhan Mohamed Ahmed was the best-rated player for Somalia in that game but even his 6.46 could not paper over the defensive frailties that have seen Somalia concede 14 goals across this campaign. The head-to-head file offers little solace for Somalia either; the last meeting at the start of this qualifying cycle finished 0-1 in Uganda’s favour.

Statistical edge and match shape

Numbers paint a confident portrait for the hosts. Uganda have fired 58 total shots in the competition with 19 on target and an average of 8.29 shots per game, complemented by an aggressive attacking profile — an attacks average of 91.86 and dangerous attacks at 80.29. They have also managed four clean sheets, suggesting an ability to control games when the moment demands it. Somalia’s output tells a different story: 41 total shots and the same 19 on target overall, but only 5.86 shots per game and a dangerous attacks average of 32.57. That gulf in quality in transition and in creating sustained pressure is likely to be decisive.

Given how both teams have been trending — Uganda confident and clinical at times, Somalia struggling to keep opponents out — expect a match that will see Uganda take the initiative, press forward and look to convert territory into goals.

Prediction and Betting Suggestion

The clearest and most sensible market here is the 1X2. Backing Uganda to win is the clean, data-driven call: superior form, stronger attacking metrics, a convincing recent victory and a previous head-to-head win all point to a home victory. For bettors looking at goal markets as an alternative, the contest also leans toward multiple-goal outcomes given Somalia’s leaky defence, but the primary recommendation is straightforward.

Betting suggestion: 1X2 — Uganda to win. Rationale: Uganda’s recent 4-0 triumph, their higher shot and attack averages, four clean sheets and Somalia’s run of defeats and heavy goals-against record make a Ugandan victory the most likely outcome.