Tension builds in Brussels as Union aim to close the tie
Union Saint-Gilloise welcome Sporting Charleroi to the Stade Joseph Mariën for the Belgian Cup semi-final on 11/02/2026, and everything points to a tight, nervy night under the floodlights. The bookies have made Union clear favourites at 1.57, a reflection of a home side that has been difficult to break down and very strong in recent weeks. Union arrive off a fresh 2-1 win over La Louvière, and their last five results read like a team on a confident run — wins against Club Brugge and Atalanta pepper a run with few hiccups.
Charleroi are no mugs, though. Their recent Pro League loss to Cercle Brugge (3-4) came after an earlier 0-0 draw with Union on 04/02, suggesting familiarity and a defensive resolve from both sides. Sporting Charleroi’s form includes several good away wins in January, and their statistics show a team that generates plenty of chances — higher total shots and a slightly superior attacks average compared to Union. That said, Charleroi’s higher average of yellow cards hints at a team that can be edgy when games tighten up.
Stats and the likely script
Numbers paint this as a clash of disciplined defences and probing attacks. Union have recorded three clean sheets at home recently and boast a dangerous attacks average of 50; Charleroi counters with 53 and a greater shots volume across matches. The head-to-head 0-0 from earlier this month underlines the likelihood of a low-scoring, tactical affair where set-pieces and small margins decide the tie. With Stade Joseph Mariën capable of holding over 50,000 fans and Jasper Vergoote in the middle, expect a tightly managed semi where neither side wants to lose the initiative.
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Verdict and betting suggestion
This is a classic semi-final where home advantage, recent momentum and probability favour the hosts. The clean-sheet numbers and Union’s recent ability to grind out results make them the safest single-market choice here. Betting market suggests value in the 1X2 market: Union Saint-Gilloise to win at 1.57. This pick balances probability and price—backing the home side to take the tie while recognising the real possibility of a tight scoreline.
