Prediction Universidad San Martín vs Molinos El Pirata 2025 – Betting Tips for the Segunda Division on 15/09/2025

Match preview: Relegation Round drama at Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao

A pulsating Relegation Round fixture awaits on 15/09/2025 as Universidad San Martín host Molinos El Pirata at the Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao in Callao. The venue, with a capacity of 13,000, will stage what promises to be a key clash for both teams: San Martín sit fourth in the group while Molinos El Pirata occupy the second spot, and the points gap underlines the importance of this late-season tussle. Universidad San Martín arrive recovering from a narrow 1-0 loss to Academia Cantolao, a result that continued a roller-coaster run of form for the hosts. Molinos El Pirata, by contrast, come in buoyed by a convincing 3-1 victory over the same Cantolao side and will fancy their chances after recent attacking displays.

Form and underlying numbers: edge to the visitors

When you dig into the numbers, Molinos El Pirata carry the sharper attacking profile into this encounter. The visitors have produced a higher shots average (8.83) and a greater rate of attacking actions (95.67 attacks on average) than Universidad San Martín, whose figures (7.9 shots and about 85.76 attacks) suggest a side that can create but perhaps lacks the final cutting edge on a consistent basis. In the group phase Molinos have also been more prolific overall, with an 11-goal return and a more reassuring defensive ledger of seven conceded compared to San Martín's eight scored and 11 conceded. That combination of greater goal threat and a steadier defensive record gives the away side a tangible statistical advantage.

Head-to-head history adds a narrative twist: these teams met in August with Molinos El Pirata prevailing 2-1 at home, a result that will give them confidence and a psychological edge. San Martín have shown flashes—winning matches such as a 4-2 away result at Deportivo Coopsol earlier in the cycle—but their inconsistency is evident in a patchy string of wins and losses. Molinos’ recent 3-1 win and a run that includes four wins in the latest sample underline a team hitting better form at a crucial time.

Tactical outlook and match flow

Expect an open contest with chances at both ends. San Martín will be keen to harness home support and press for control, but Molinos’ higher work rate in attack and better shots output suggest they will ask the tougher questions. Given past meetings and the visitors’ more coherent returns in goals scored and fewer conceded, the momentum is with Molinos El Pirata heading into Callao.

Betting suggestion

Betting market: 1X2 — Molinos El Pirata to win. The statistical profile, superior group position, recent 3-1 victory and the earlier 2-1 head-to-head success all point to the visitors as the likeliest winners in this one.