Prediction Uruguay vs Peru 2026 season – Betting Tips for the WC Qualification South America on 04/09/2025

Match snapshot and mood in the camp

When Uruguay walk out at Estadio Centenario in Armenia on 04/09/2025 they will carry the weight of expectation — and the bookmakers’ backing. Uruguay sit comfortably higher in the South American qualifying table with 24 points and a return of 19 goals for versus 12 conceded from 16 matches, while Peru are languishing down in ninth with just 12 points and a meagre six goals across the same slate of fixtures. The venue in Armenia (capacity 60,235) will stage what looks on paper like a one-sided affair: odds of 1.30 for a Uruguay win reflect a market convinced that Óscar Tabárez’s side (as the historical identity) will impose themselves.

Form tells a consistent story. Uruguay arrive off a morale-boosting 2-0 win over Venezuela in June where Giorgian de Arrascaeta earned the match’s best rating; their ten-match run reads as a mixed bag — two wins, five draws and three defeats — but crucially they remain hard to break down at home in recent displays. Peru, by contrast, have been grinding out results with low returns: a sequence peppered with 0-0s and heavy reliance on draws and occasional narrow wins. Their most recent outing was a 0-0 stalemate with Ecuador and Carlos Zambrano was the standout performer that night; overall, Peru have struggled for goals and are vulnerable when chasing matches.

Tactical outlook and likely game rhythm

This fixture promises to be a chess match dominated by Uruguay’s structured attack and Peru’s defensive caution. Uruguay’s scoring has been steady rather than explosive — a spread of results includes a pair of 2-0s and a string of tight, low-scoring affairs — while Peru’s output is worryingly sparse: six goals in 16 matches. Historically, the sides met in October 2024 with Peru edging a 1-0 win at home, but that result looks increasingly anomalous against the current campaign form lines.

Expect the match to open cagey. Uruguay should control possession and craft the clearer chances — their home attacking averages suggest more activity inside the box and a higher shot accuracy — while Peru will likely sit deeper, hoping to nick something on the break or in set-piece situations. Given Peru’s struggles in front of goal and Uruguay’s relatively conservative defensive record, there is a real likelihood this game will be decided by a single strike rather than a goal bonanza.

Betting suggestion

Recommendation: 1X2 market — Bet on Uruguay to win. The balance of the table, recent results, home attacking edge and the market probability all point to a home victory. Take Uruguay (Home) as the primary pick.