Match overview: uphill task for Vukovar at Stadion Cibalia
Vukovar return to Stadion Cibalia on 17 October carrying the weight of an underwhelming start to the 2025/2026 1. HNL season. The hosts sit 10th after nine games with just five points, a solitary win and six defeats. Their home numbers are particularly worrying: zero clean sheets so far and only seven of their eight total goals have come inside their own stadium record. Defensive frailties are clear in the goals conceded column — 18 conceded across the campaign — and recent form reads like a struggle, with losses to Hajduk Split and Varaždin among others. Even when Vukovar do pose a threat, their attacking output has been inconsistent; they have managed some lively attacking metrics such as a decent average of 105.22 attacks and 60 dangerous attacks per game, yet that has not translated into steady returns on the scoreboard.
Lokomotiva Zagreb travel to Vinkovci in much healthier shape. Sitting third with 15 points from nine matches, Lokomotiva have been far more reliable, collecting five wins and only two defeats. They arrive off the back of a morale-boosting 2-1 victory over Dinamo Zagreb, where Fabijan Krivak earned the plaudits with the best player rating in that fixture. Across the season their goals for and against are balanced at 11 apiece, and the team has managed two clean sheets — a sign of defensive resilience that Vukovar have been missing.
Tactical edge and key trends
Looking deeper into the numbers, Vukovar’s home games have tended to be open affairs — 80% of their home matches have seen both teams score, and two-thirds have produced over 2.5 goals. Lokomotiva, while more controlled, also show a willingness to participate in goal-rich matches; their season over 2.5 percentage sits lower at 44.44% but their shots figures are competitive, with 34 shots on target across the campaign compared to Vukovar’s 30. The opening head-to-head of this season also provides a psychological edge: Lokomotiva won the first meeting 1-0 on 1 August, proving they can get the job done against these opponents.
Given the contrast in form, defensive records and recent results, the momentum belongs to the visitors. Lokomotiva’s ability to grind out results — demonstrated by wins over Dinamo Zagreb and Varaždin and a stable run of performances — suggests they are the side likeliest to collect three points on Friday.
Betting suggestion I recommend a 1X2 market selection: back Lokomotiva Zagreb to win at the offered odds of 2.05. The away side’s superior form, recent victory over Dinamo Zagreb, cleaner defensive record and the psychological advantage from the earlier 1-0 win this season make the away win the most compelling single-market pick.