The London Stadium will be buzzing on 13 September as West Ham United welcome Tottenham Hotspur in Round 4 of the 2025/2026 Premier League season. With Jarred Gillett appointed to take charge and a crowd capacity of 59,623 awaiting, the fixture promises intensity. West Ham arrive propped up in 16th place after three league outings, having scored four and shipped eight goals. Tottenham sit more comfortably in fourth, with six points from their opening three matches and a much healthier goal difference — five scored and just one conceded.
West Ham’s recent results paint a mixed and at times troubling picture: a convincing 3-0 victory at Nottingham Forest lifted spirits, but heavy defeats at Chelsea (1-5) and Sunderland (0-3) leave questions over defensive stability. Lucas Paquetá’s man-of-the-match display in the Forest win stands out as a bright spot for the home side. Tottenham, meanwhile, bring a more consistent early-season profile: big away wins at Manchester City and a 3-0 home win over Burnley offset a narrow loss to Bournemouth. In goal for Spurs, Guglielmo Vicario earned plaudits in the Bournemouth tie despite the defeat; Tottenham’s two clean sheets so far underline a sturdier defensive base.
Looking at the underlying numbers, West Ham show attacking intent — high shot volumes and over 2.5 goals recorded in all three of their matches (over25Perc 100%). Their home stats show plenty of attempts (total shots 36, shots on target 16) and creativity (attacks average 89.67), but defensive fragility (goals conceded at home 5) is a stark counterbalance. Tottenham are also proactive offensively (total shots 33, shots on target 12, attacks average 87.33) but crucially have conceded far less and kept two clean sheets already. Historically the recent head-to-head ended 1-1 in May, so there is precedent for a tight game, but current form and bookmaker pricing tilt the balance.
Bookmakers give Tottenham the edge: an away win is priced around 2.10 (implied probability 47.62%), while a West Ham victory sits at 3.30 (30.3%) and the draw at 3.45 (28.99%). Those odds reflect Spurs’ defensive solidity and greater consistency across recent matches.
Prediction: expect a competitive London derby where Tottenham’s balance and recent defensive record should be decisive. West Ham will create chances and the home crowd will drive them on, but Tottenham look likelier to leave Stratford with the points.
Betting suggestion I recommend a 1X2 bet on Away (Tottenham Hotspur) at 2.10 based on Tottenham’s superior form, cleaner defensive numbers, and the bookmaker probability edge.
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