Dolphins vs. Colts odds, predictions, bets: Computer model reveals free 2025 NFL Week 1 picks for Sunday

Miami’s offense and Tua’s experience versus Indianapolis’ shaky defense suggests value on Dolphins +1 and the game Over 46.5; punters might lean to a small spread play on Miami while targeting the Over given Indy’s tendency to yield yards and points late last season.

Dolphins vs. Colts Week 1 Preview

AFC East meets AFC South as the Miami Dolphins head to Lucas Oil Stadium to face the Indianapolis Colts in an intriguing Week 1 matchup. Both clubs finished 8-9 last season, but Miami enters with more offensive continuity while Indianapolis opens with a new look under center.

Quarterback Dynamics

Tua Tagovailoa begins his sixth season as Miami’s starter, armed with a dynamic receiving corps despite some preseason bumps. Daniel Jones will make his first regular-season start for the Colts after arriving from a long tenure elsewhere, leaving Indianapolis’ offense likely to be a work in progress early.

Head-to-Head and Recent Form

Indianapolis has won four of the last five meetings, yet Miami has been the more consistent team overall in recent years. That historical edge on the Colts, however, doesn’t erase the narrow spread lines set for this opener.

Injuries, Roster Notes and Matchups

De’Von Achane and Tyreek Hill dealt with preseason ailments but Miami’s offense is expected to operate at a high level. Miami also experienced defensive turnover this offseason; young pass-rushers like Chop Robinson and rookie Kenneth Grant are still developing into larger roles. Indianapolis will try to leverage its new signal-caller but may show growing pains.

Defensive Concerns for Indianapolis

The Colts finished among the league’s worst run-and-pass defenses last season in terms of total yards allowed, surrendering roughly 361 yards per game. Indianapolis finished with several high-scoring affairs and saw the Over hit frequently, including a late-season streak.

Betting Outlook and Projection

Current market lines list Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite with an Over/Under at 46.5. Moneyline pricing is almost even, reflecting the expected tight contest. A simulation-based projection model that runs each game 10,000 times leans to Dolphins +1 and the Over 46.5. The model shows the Dolphins covering in just over half of simulations and the Over hitting in a clear majority, reflecting Miami’s offensive upside and Indy’s defensive vulnerability.

What Bettors Should Consider

- Small spread play on Miami (+1) could offer value given Tua’s offensive continuity and Indianapolis’ likely early-season adjustment at quarterback. - Target the Over (46.5) if you expect Indy’s defensive issues to persist and Miami’s offense to perform near expectations. - Monitor final injury reports for Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane and any late changes to the Colts’ offensive game plan before placing wagers.

Final Take

This Week 1 meeting shapes up as a tight, offense-leaning game. Expect bettors looking for edge plays to weigh a slim spread on Miami and consider the total, with the key questions centering on Indy’s defensive readiness and how quickly Daniel Jones settles into the Colts’ offense.

The SportsLine projection model reveals its picks for the NFL Week 1 game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Miami Dolphins on CBS and Paramount+

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