CFP Bubble Watch: Who's in, who's out, who has work to do in each league

CFP projection shifts favor SEC depth and Group of 5 momentum: bettors may want to back Memphis in AAC futures and consider fading LSU in national-title futures until the Tigers improve their run game. Missouri's upcoming stretch against ranked foes makes it a tempting live-bet target — shop lines ahead of key LSU, Alabama and Texas A&M matchups.

CFP Top-12 Snapshot: SEC Dominance, Surprises in the Bubble

The latest projection shows the SEC occupying half of the 12-team field while traditional contenders like Texas, Penn State and Florida State sit outside the immediate bracket after damaging losses. The projection categorizes teams as Would be in, On the cusp, Work to do and Would be out to reflect where they stand relative to an imagined selection-committee ranking released today.

SEC Spotlight: LSU and Missouri

LSU — The Case to Climb

LSU re-entered the conversation and currently sits around No. 12 in this projection, but a true playoff bid requires a jump into the top 10. The Tigers face one of the toughest remaining schedules in the country and must shore up a struggling run game (119th, 104.8 ypg) and create more big plays (No. 103 in plays of 20+ yards). Saturday’s matchup with South Carolina is pivotal before a stretch including Vandy, Texas A&M and Alabama.

Missouri — The Enigma

Missouri’s undefeated start looks impressive but is light on marquee wins. The Tigers boast the nation’s No. 3 rushing attack (292 ypg) and lead in third-down conversions (61.6%), plus elite fundamentals on defense. The schedule is stiff heading into a season-defining run: Alabama at home, then road trips to Auburn and Vanderbilt. This month will determine whether Mizzou is a legitimate contender or a mirage.

SEC Tiers

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M On the cusp: LSU Work to do: Missouri, Vanderbilt Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas

Big Ten Spotlight: Michigan and USC

Michigan — Momentum and the Road Test

Michigan has rebounded since an early loss and relies on a strong rushing offense and defense. The Wolverines have one of the better chances in the conference to reach the title game, but Saturday’s trip to USC is a major litmus test. A loss would force Michigan into must-win scenarios down the stretch to preserve at-large hopes.

USC — The Enigma

USC has been boom-or-bust this season, struggling to close out games and surrendering 30-plus points in recent outings. A victory over Michigan would provide the signature win the Trojans lack, but looming road tests at Notre Dame and Oregon mean the Trojans must prove they can play four clean quarters against ranked competition.

Big Ten Tiers

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon On the cusp: Michigan Work to do: Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, USC, Washington Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin

ACC Spotlight: Georgia Tech and Virginia

Georgia Tech — Undefeated, But Under Scrutiny

Georgia Tech’s unbeaten start is noteworthy, but their résumé lacks wins over ranked opponents. Officials’ missed calls in close games have invited debate, and the Jackets’ path to an ACC title — or an at-large bid — depends on sustaining perfection and making noise against Georgia if they get the chance.

Virginia — The Enigma

Virginia has turned heads with wins over Florida State and Louisville and sits with a strong chance to reach the ACC title game. However, the Cavaliers lack a big nonconference test and could see a Week 2 loss to NC State loom large if they don’t win the league.

ACC Tiers

Would be in: Miami On the cusp: Georgia Tech Work to do: Virginia Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Big 12 Spotlight: BYU and Arizona State

BYU — On Track for a Title Game

BYU looks poised to battle Texas Tech for the Big 12 crown. ESPN Analytics gives the Cougars strong odds to reach the conference title game, and a head-to-head Nov. 8 matchup with Texas Tech will likely decide the league pecking order. One loss to Texas Tech doesn’t doom BYU if it finishes with the conference title.

Arizona State — The Enigma

Arizona State rebounded after an early loss and has key wins over Baylor and TCU, but tough upcoming tests (Utah, Texas Tech, Houston, Iowa State) form a season-defining stretch. FPI projects multiple losses in that run, so ASU must prove it can repeat as a top Big 12 threat.

Big 12 Tiers

Would be in: Texas Tech On the cusp: BYU Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, TCU, Utah Would be out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, UCF, West Virginia

Independent and Group of 5 Notes

Independent — Notre Dame

Notre Dame is outside the immediate CFP bracket but has the best odds in the country to win out. If the Irish finish 10-2, their playoff chances would increase significantly, especially with a home date against USC looming as the toughest remaining test.

Group of 5 — Memphis and UNLV

Memphis projects as the top Group of 5 contender and would claim the No. 12 seed if it wins the American. The Tigers boast a solid strength of record and remain the favorite for the conference. UNLV has impressed and sits near Boise State in the Mountain West race; both teams could factor into CFP discussion if they win out and secure marquee victories.

Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, Old Dominion, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV

Projected 12-Team Bracket

First-round byes: No. 1 Miami (ACC champ) No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ) No. 3 Oregon No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)

First-round games (on campus, Dec. 19-20):
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Ole Miss
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama
No. 10 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia

Quarterfinal matchups would be played on Dec. 31 / Jan. 1 at the New Year’s bowls.

What to Watch and Betting Angles

Key indicators for bettors: LSU’s ability to revive its run game and produce big plays, Missouri’s performance across its ranked stretch, and Memphis’s march through the American. Live betting and futures markets could shift sharply after the next wave of conference matchups; shop multiple lines and monitor injuries and workload on running backs and quarterbacks before committing to long-term futures.

Putting the spotlight on select teams and questions around others as the early playoff picture takes shape.

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