'It's frustrating': Bears' Caleb Williams still battling accuracy problems

Caleb Williams flashed elite accuracy in the first half vs. Minnesota but fell to 42% in the second half with an NFL-worst 29.4% off-target rate in Week 1. With the Lions 6.5-point favorites this week, bettors may lean Detroit or target Williams-related props (completion percentage or under on passing accuracy), as pressure and footwork issues make conservative QB prop plays likelier.

Caleb Williams' Accuracy Concerns Loom Large Ahead of Lions Clash

Before training camp, Bears coach Ben Johnson set a 70% completion target for Caleb Williams, a high bar for a second-year QB adapting to a new offense. Williams finished his rookie year under the league average, completing 62.5% of passes for 3,451 yards, 20 touchdowns and six interceptions. Only five quarterbacks reached 70% completion in 2024, underscoring how ambitious Johnson’s benchmark is.

Split Performance Against Minnesota: First-Half Precision, Second-Half Slide

Williams completed 21 of 35 passes (60%) for 210 yards and a touchdown in the season opener, also rushing for a TD on the opening drive. He was nearly flawless early, completing 13 of 16 in the first half and connecting on his first 10 attempts — the longest streak for a Bears starter to open a season since 1978. The second half, however, exposed inconsistencies: Williams dropped to 42% completion and logged a 29.4% off-target rate, the worst in Week 1, as Chicago surrendered an 11-point lead.

How the Vikings Adjusted

Minnesota’s pressure scheme intensified after halftime, with blitzes on 44% of Williams’ dropbacks in the second half versus 25% in the first. Williams’ numbers suffered under that aggression (5-of-12 for 29 yards and a late touchdown), highlighting his challenges when defenses bring consistent pressure.

Mechanics, Footwork and Decision-Making Under the Microscope

Coaches pointed to footwork and hesitation as correctable factors. When Williams’ mechanics were clean and he threw decisively, accuracy and timing returned. Longer holds correlated with poorer outcomes: Williams completed 62.5% of throws when the ball came out in 2.5 seconds or less, compared with 57.9% on throws taking longer. He was slightly more accurate under center (61.5%) than from the shotgun (59.1%) and performed better when not pressured (61.5% vs. 55.6%).

Longer-Term Accuracy Trends

Across 18 games since his rookie season began, Williams carries a 22% off-target rate, the second-highest in the league. His red-zone off-target rate sits at 31%, another troubling mark, and his expected completion differential is weakest when throwing to the left. These recurring issues frame the coaching staff’s offseason emphasis on mechanics and quicker decision-making.

Coach’s Expectations and Practice Focus

Johnson has emphasized steady improvement toward that 70% practice benchmark rather than instant perfection in games. The plan is to reinforce clean footwork, decisiveness in the pocket and quicker releases to reduce missed throws in high-leverage situations. Williams has voiced a belief in the process, citing trust in the coaching staff and teammates as central to regaining consistency.

Betting Implications for Week 2

With Detroit listed as 6.5-point favorites, markets are likely to favor the Lions given Williams’ second-half slide and history of being susceptible to pressure. Punters should consider team spread and total market movement, plus QB props: completion percentage or passing accuracy props might lean lower, while rushing/evade-the-pocket props could hold value if Williams relies on mobility to offset pressure.

Suggested Market Angles

- Back the Lions on the spread or shop totals if you expect a lower-scoring game driven by stalled Bears drives when under pressure. - Target Williams-related props like under on completion percentage or conservative passing yard props. - Consider game-flow props (first-half performance lines) if you believe Williams reproduces his strong starts but struggles late.

Conclusion

Caleb Williams displayed both the upside that justified his draft billing and the inconsistency that will define his short-term outlook. The Bears’ coaching staff is zeroed in on footwork and decisiveness to close the gap, but opponents that dial up pressure can still tilt games away from Chicago. For bettors, that combination points to caution on aggressive Williams props and a tilt toward betting the Lions or lower QB completion expectations.

Williams started strong in Week 1, but he struggled in the second half. Next up are the Lions, who are 6.5-point favorites.

Espn