Our guide to every Week 11 NFL game: Matchup previews, predictions, picks and nuggets

Dolphins vs. Commanders in Madrid kicks off Week 11, with several divisional showdowns and primetime clashes shaping betting lines. Punters should monitor injury news — consider backing Buffalo (-5.5) against Tampa Bay and the Rams (-3.5) at home vs. Seattle; expect sharper totals in offensive matchups (Cowboys-Raiders, Bills-Bucs). Late-week injuries could swing spreads, so shop lines and wait for final reports before locking wagers.

Week 11 NFL Preview: Key Matchups, Odds and Betting Angles

Overview

The Week 11 slate features international action in Madrid, NFC West showdowns, and a Monday night finale in Las Vegas. Below are game-by-game previews with what teams are saying, pivotal stats, bold on-field predictions, injury notes, fantasy angles and betting nuggets.

Dolphins (3-7) at Commanders (3-7) — Madrid — 9:30 a.m. ET — Odds: MIA -2.5 (47.5 O/U)

What coaches and teams are saying

Miami kept celebrations short after last week's win and is focused on stringing together a winning streak. Washington has shifted defensive playcalling and will be without two starting outside corners and a suspended interior presence, forcing lineup changes up front.

Key stat

Both teams are surrendering/averaging 4.9 yards per rush in recent samples, highlighting a ground-game vulnerability on both sides.

Bold prediction

Washington’s lead back will top 80 rushing yards, exploiting contact yards after tackle and Miami’s struggles to stop the run.

Injuries

Monitor final practice reports for cornerback and defensive line availability for Washington and any late Dolphins adjustments.

Fantasy nugget

Miami’s top WR remains a viable weekly start given high target share; Commanders are vulnerable to WR fantasy production.

Betting nugget

Miami is a poor cover candidate in tight lines this season; lean cautiously in close spreads.

Staff picks

Picks: Dolphins 20-32 (varying margins); Model edge: Washington slight favorite by ~0.4 points.

Buccaneers (6-3) at Bills (6-3) — 1 p.m. ET — Odds: BUF -5.5 (47.5 O/U)

What teams are saying

Tampa Bay plans to limit explosive plays and contain Buffalo’s run-pass balance. Buffalo’s defense is trending healthier and aims to correct recent run defense lapses.

Key stat

Buffalo ranks near the top in rushing yards per game but turnover trends show Allen has had more turnovers in losses than wins.

Bold prediction

A Bills backup RB will surface as a key receiving threat, taking advantage of matchup issues in the Bucs' linebacking corps.

Injuries

Check Buffalo’s active list for rotation pieces on the D-line and any Buccaneers game-day starters.

Fantasy nugget

Tampa RB with increased volume has mixed recent production; Buffalo still offers RB reception upside against vulnerable LB coverage.

Betting nugget

Buccaneers show strong ATS performance following losses; consider form and situational trends against the spread.

Staff picks

Bills favored by multiple analysts (mid-to-high 20s scoring projections); model favors Buffalo ~61% to win.

Chargers (7-3) at Jaguars (5-4) — 1 p.m. ET — Odds: LAC -2.5 (43.5 O/U)

What teams are saying

Chargers’ QB showed frustration after heavy pressure; Jaguars see a matchup to exploit a pressured signal-caller given injury-depleted tackle depth.

Key stat

Chargers favor a heavy passing rate; opponents have found success forcing them to throw more.

Bold prediction

The Chargers will attempt 40-plus passes as game script forces the aerial attack.

Injuries

Chargers are managing offensive line absences; Jaguars monitoring pass-rush health for key edge rushers.

Fantasy nugget

Chargers’ defense has produced upside for fantasy defenses with turnovers and pressures recently.

Betting nugget

History favors Charger covers in the series, but recent Jaguars results complicate straightforward wagers.

Staff picks

Chargers favored by analysts; model gives Chargers the advantage by about 3 points.

Packers (5-3-1) at Giants (2-8) — 1 p.m. ET — Odds: GB -7.5 (41.5 O/U)

What teams are saying

Green Bay is exploring ways to revive an offense trending toward low scoring; the Giants just made a coaching change and must find quick fixes.

Key stat

Packers have been markedly more productive in fourth quarters, a point of emphasis.

Bold prediction

Expect a heavy dose of the run game to stress the Giants’ porous run defense and rack up tackles for their lead LB.

Injuries

Monitor any late changes after the coaching staff shakeup; Green Bay’s offensive usage could shift.

Fantasy nugget

A workhorse RB for Green Bay profiles as the preferable start versus the Giants’ weak rush defense; Giants’ tight end can be a mismatch weapon.

Betting nugget

Teams with midseason coaching changes have historically covered in the immediate aftermath; factor in the emotional uplift.

Staff picks

Packers projected as comfortable favorites; model gives Green Bay ~64% win probability.

Bengals (3-6) at Steelers (5-4) — 1 p.m. ET — Odds: PIT -5.5 (48.5 O/U)

What teams are saying

Cincinnati’s rookie guard pairing faces a major test against a premier Steelers edge rusher; trench play will be decisive.

Key stat

A Bengals WR has a touchdown streak against Pittsburgh; red-zone efficiency will matter.

Bold prediction

Steelers will lean on tight ends for volume — expect double-digit combined catches at the position.

Injuries

Check both teams for defensive line and backfield availability that can shift game script.

Fantasy nugget

Steelers’ lead RB is a stable fantasy floor with consistent touch share; Bengals defend RBs poorly, boosting matchup appeal.

Betting nugget

This Bengals team has seen many games go over totals; expect a higher-scoring contest.

Staff picks

Split opinions, with slight lean to Steelers; model favors Pittsburgh by mid-single digits.

Bears (6-3) at Vikings (4-5) — 1 p.m. ET — Odds: MIN -2.5 (48.5 O/U)

What teams are saying

Rookie QB’s late-game composure powers the Bears; Vikings’ QB is battling accuracy issues and a bruised throwing hand.

Key stat

Bears tied for top record in division despite quarterback’s struggles; turnovers and accuracy are X-factors.

Bold prediction

Vikings’ QB will be intercepted multiple times due to accuracy woes and defensive scheming.

Injuries

Monitor QB hand status and any practice limitations.

Fantasy nugget

Top Viking receivers could rebound against a Bears defense that concedes large yards per target to WRs.

Betting nugget

Recent over trends in both teams’ games suggest a lean toward the total hitting the over.

Staff picks

Close projection; model nearly coin-flip with slight home-field lean.

Texans (4-5) at Titans (1-8) — 1 p.m. ET — Odds: HOU -6.5 (37.5 O/U)

What teams are saying

Houston aims to avoid more late comebacks and close games; Tennessee is desperate to find offensive consistency after a previous shutout loss.

Key stat

Texans rank among the stingiest teams in points allowed, while Titans are last in points scored.

Bold prediction

Titans will record at least one sack from a returning edge rusher working back from injury.

Injuries

Check for practice reports on both sides’ defensive front and quarterbacks.

Fantasy nugget

Texans’ RB with consistent volume projects as a solid fantasy option against a Titans rush defense that has allowed substantial RB production.

Betting nugget

Titans display strong ATS performance after byes historically; treat spread moves with context.

Staff picks

Texans favored in most projections; model gives Houston a commanding edge.

Panthers (5-5) at Falcons (3-6) — 1 p.m. ET — Odds: ATL -3.5 (41.5 O/U)

What teams are saying

Carolina struggles to stretch the field and generate points; Atlanta’s WR has been productive against zone and the Panthers tend to play zone frequently.

Key stat

Panthers have averaged roughly 11 points over their recent four-game stretch, highlighting offensive malaise.

Bold prediction

Falcons’ top CB will limit the rookie receiver to one or fewer catches in primary coverage.

Injuries

Watch for receiver availability and interior OL changes on Arizona-type injuries (team-by-team specifics).

Fantasy nugget

When given volume, Carolina’s primary rusher has been effective; Atlanta’s defense has been generous to RB fantasy production recently.

Betting nugget

Falcons have been a weak ATS favorite this season; market caution advised.

Staff picks

Home edge favors Falcons; model gives Atlanta a solid but not overwhelming chance.

Seahawks (7-2) at Rams (7-2) — 4:05 p.m. ET — Odds: LAR -3.5 (48.5 O/U)

What teams are saying

This NFC West clash will decide first-place momentum. Seattle’s defense ranks among the league’s best, while the Rams counter with a top-scoring QB and explosive passing attack.

Key stat

Seattle’s leading WR just passed 1,000 receiving yards in nine games — a pace-setting accomplishment.

Bold prediction

Rams’ interior defensive lineman will log a sack, exploiting Seattle’s starting center absence and backup adjustments.

Injuries

Seahawks starting center is out for multiple weeks; check for Rams’ and Seahawks’ OL updates.

Fantasy nugget

Rams’ run game has struggled; Seahawks’ passing game, including the WR leader, looks like the stronger fantasy play.

Betting nugget

Seahawks have been excellent on the road outright and ATS under their current coach; factor that into spread decisions.

Staff picks

Rams favored in several projections; model gives Los Angeles roughly 60% chance to win.

49ers (6-4) at Cardinals (3-6) — 4:05 p.m. ET — Odds: SF -2.5 (48.5 O/U)

What teams are saying

San Francisco’s defense, missing a key linebacker, has shown vulnerability to tight ends; Arizona’s offense is leaning on its top TE, especially with top WRs sidelined.

Key stat

49ers are scoring at their lowest points-per-game mark since 2017 under current offensive leadership.

Bold prediction

A backup 49ers RB will top 50 rushing yards, taking advantage of Arizona’s susceptibility to outside zone runs.

Injuries

Check both teams for multiple limited players; Cardinals list has included several key injured starters in recent practices.

Fantasy nugget

Arizona’s QB revival has boosted his TE target share; with top WR out, the TE becomes a prime fantasy start.

Betting nugget

Cardinals have strong ATS results as underdogs; consider value on the plus-money side.

Staff picks

49ers slight favorite; model gives San Francisco the edge in a closely projected game.

Chiefs (5-4) at Broncos (8-2) — 4:25 p.m. ET — Odds: KC -3.5 (44.5 O/U)

What teams are saying

Chiefs are working through slow starts from veteran defensive linemen; Broncos enter on a long winning streak and the defense leads the league in sacks.

Key stat

Broncos’ defense has generated 46 sacks — a league-high gap over the next team — creating matchups to pressure the Chiefs’ QB.

Bold prediction

The Chiefs’ QB will post a dominant QBR and reassert MVP candidacy thanks to offensive rhythm and a week of rest.

Injuries

Broncos missing a top corner impacts coverage; monitor Chiefs’ offensive line health.

Fantasy nugget

Broncos’ RB will see elevated volume due to an injured lead back; his per-touch fantasy efficiency makes him a sleeper start.

Betting nugget

Broncos are unbeaten at home outright this season; consider home advantage vs. spread volatility.

Staff picks

Chiefs favored in many staff projections; model gives Kansas City a modest edge.

Ravens (4-5) at Browns (2-7) — 4:25 p.m. ET — Odds: BAL -7.5 (39.5 O/U)

What teams are saying

Ravens' QB is managing knee soreness; Browns historically play Baltimore tightly at home and will try to pressure and exploit mistakes.

Key stat

Cleveland allows the second-fewest yards per game and the fewest first downs, underscoring a stout run defense and situational defense.

Bold prediction

Ravens’ primary WR will break a long-yardage receiving drought and reach 100 yards for the first time since Week 1.

Injuries

Monitor Ravens’ QB knee and Browns’ defensive availability, as both could shift game plan.

Fantasy nugget

Browns’ lead RB’s workload is encouraging for long-term fantasy value as he recovers from injury; Ravens have allowed strong RB outputs recently.

Betting nugget

This pairing historically trends to the over; consider total if both offenses find rhythm.

Staff picks

Ravens project as sizable favorites; model heavily favors Baltimore (~78% in one metric).

Lions (6-3) at Eagles (7-2) — 8:20 p.m. ET — Odds: PHI -2.5 (46.5 O/U)

What teams are saying

Detroit seeks its first win over Philadelphia in the Dan Campbell era; Eagles’ defensive line has ramped up pressure and looks to continue that trend.

Key stat

Philadelphia has the fewest turnovers in the league, a major advantage in tight games.

Bold prediction

Eagles will increase their pass rate significantly after a run-heavy week, improving efficiency against Detroit’s weaker pass rush.

Injuries

Check injury reports for both teams; defensive line availability for Philly is crucial.

Fantasy nugget

Lions’ WRs and Eagles’ passing attack interplay creates high-upside matchups for pass-catchers due to Detroit’s run-defense strength but weak pass rush.

Betting nugget

Lions have a strong prime-time ATS history; weigh emotional factors and matchup specifics on spread decisions.

Staff picks

Close projections with slight Eagles edge; model slightly favors Philadelphia.

Cowboys (3-5-1) at Raiders (2-7) — Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET — Odds: DAL -3.5 (49.5 O/U)

What teams are saying

Cowboys are processing a recent teammate loss and aim to honor him with focused play. Raiders made a special teams coaching change to address game-turning mistakes.

Key stat

A Raiders RB accounts for roughly 70% of the team's rushing yards, creating a single-back reliance that opposing defenses can gameplan against.

Bold prediction

A Raiders deep-threat receiver will break a big play (40+ yards) downfield given the Cowboys’ vulnerability over the top.

Injuries

Watch for late changes across both rosters; special teams shuffling could affect field-position outcomes.

Fantasy nugget

Cowboys’ primary WR and Raiders’ top pass-catcher both carry strong target averages and should see volume in this matchup.

Betting nugget

Cowboys' recent games have leaned over totals; monitor line movement and game-time weather.

Staff picks

Cowboys favored consistently, model gives Dak’s team a mid-single-digit edge.

How to use this guide for betting and fantasy

Monitor injury reports and late-week practice designations — they matter more than preseason form. Shop lines across books, consider totals in matchups with recent over/under trends, and weigh home-field and situational ATS history. For fantasy, prioritize volume and target share over name recognition when making start/sit decisions.

NFL offensive line rankings ahead of Week 11

Closing note

Week 11 delivers high-stakes divisional drama, prime-time narratives and multiple betting angles. Finalize wagers only after the Wednesday-Thursday injury reports and watchline adjustments; the sharpest edges emerge in the last 24 hours before kickoff.

Football in Spain? Baker Mayfield vs. Josh Allen? Picks, predictions and stats for every Week 11 game.

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