Our hottest early MLB playoff hot takes: From one pitch deciding October to the Jays averaging ... how many runs per game?!

Parity in the 2025 MLB playoffs suggests every Division Series could reach Game 5, creating value on series props, Game 5 moneylines and totals. Bettors should target underdog series prices, Game 5 outcomes, and pitcher-specific props—especially strikeout and save markets—based on matchups and the growing impact of splitters on strikeout rates and run suppression.

Playoff snapshot: small sample, big implications

One week into the 2025 MLB playoffs, each Division Series has played at least two games, but October’s short series remain volatile. Early results can mislead; momentum swings quickly and pitching matchups, bullpen usage and one dominant pitch can flip a series overnight. Expect more drama and tighter margins as teams adjust.

All four Division Series trending toward Game 5

The talent gap among the eight remaining clubs is narrower than in many postseasons, increasing the probability that every division series stretches the distance. Teams that began 0-2 have realistic routes to recover at home, while split series—especially the Tigers vs. Mariners—look poised to extend. For bettors that means sharper markets for late-series lines and value in Game 5-specific props.

Splitter revolution: one pitch could decide October

Splitters have surged in this postseason. Historical pitch-type ranges were roughly 0.2%–3.1% in prior years; this October the splitter share has jumped sharply. One team in particular stands out for splitter usage, and several high-profile hurlers have leaned on the pitch to generate swings-and-misses. That trend changes the calculus on strikeout totals, opponent batting props and low-scoring game scenarios.

Why the splitter matters for betting

When splitters dominate a staff’s repertoire, expect higher K rates and more soft contact, which pushes totals lower and favors strikeout and “under” markets. Conversely, teams with batters who hit splitters well become attractive targets in player props and team scoring lines. Monitor pitch splits in pregame models and consider targeting pitchers’ K props or team totals aligned with splitter-heavy matchups.

The splitter’s postseason ripple: copycat pitching and spring implications

Eye-opening October results from a handful of pitchers will likely spark widespread adoption of the splitter in the offseason. Pitchers who find late-breaking, chase-inducing splitters can flip their role in October, boosting their value for prop markets next season and altering spring training narratives about pitch mixes.

Players to watch — who can tilt a series

Cal Raleigh: power in October

A 60-homer season puts Raleigh among a tiny group of sluggers entering October with enormous pop. If he heats up, Raleigh’s long ball upside makes him a top candidate for multi-homer props and an ideal target for same-game parlay power plays.

Jackson Chourio: breakout impact

Chourio’s dynamic bat and table-setting ability can spark a lineup and shift series momentum. Expect him to be a frequent mention in single-game run-prop and multi-game “over total hits” markets.

Relief trio: run suppression candidates

A handful of elite arms have shown lockdown ability entering the postseason. If they continue to post zeroes, look for value in saves props, reliever K totals and low-scoring matchups that favor under bettors.

Veteran finales and narrative outcomes

Storylines like veteran closers or legends closing out a World Series create betting interest in late-inning appearance props and ceremonial final-out scenarios. These are long-shot but high-odds niche wagers.

Team outlooks and betting angles

Blue Jays: offense-first and splitter-aware

Toronto’s lineup has already been explosive. With heavy splitter usage among some staff opponents, the Blue Jays could keep leaning on offense; backing their game totals or run-line in favorable matchups holds appeal. Futures bettors might consider AL pennant share if rotation depth holds.

Yankees: path back in the ALDS

A 2-0 deficit isn’t fatal. Matchup shifts and home games give New York a plausible comeback route. Consider hedged series bets and targeting individual games where lefty-heavy Yankee lineups exploit certain pitchers’ tendencies.

Dodgers: depth-first postseason strategy

Los Angeles boasts rotation depth and multiple high-end starters who can be deployed in creative ways. That flexibility supports small favorites in short series and makes Dodgers’ game totals and low-margin outcomes attractive for savvy bettors. Their bullpen usage, however, could create volatility in close lines.

Phillies and others: don’t discount counterintuitive outcomes

Top teams can be upset in short series. Historical quirks and matchup dynamics mean favorites aren’t locks; look for edges in underdog series prices and situational props (e.g., home-team bounceback in Game 3/4).

Early betting action: angles to consider

- Series props: With many series likely to go five games, late-series markets and Game 5 lines may offer hidden value. - Totals and K props: The splitter surge favors unders and higher pitcher K totals. - Player power props: Sluggers who finished strong in the regular season are prime targets for multi-game homer bets. - Reliever and closer props: Elite postseason relievers can offer favorable odds in saves and K markets if they remain dominant.

What to watch this week

Pitching matchups and bullpen usage will dictate markets. Track splitter frequency, starter workloads and lineup changes. Small-sample postseason data moves lines quickly; bettors who react to matchup nuance and pitch-type trends are likeliest to find value.

What can we learn from a week of MLB postseason baseball? Enough to make our experts go all-in on their boldest predictions.

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