Week 15 betting takeaways: expect sharp OVER action in Rams-Lions (54.3) and Bengals-Ravens (49.9); back heavy favorites Jaguars and 49ers, and consider taking the Patriots in a shootout (O/U 50.7). Fade volatile RBs in tough matchups (Breece Hall, Tony Pollard) and downgrade receivers facing strong shadow coverage (Zay Flowers vs. DJ Turner).
Week 15 NFL Preview: Key Projections, Fantasy Notes and Betting Angles
Overview
This Week 15 guide delivers game projections, over/unders, win probabilities and concise fantasy and betting notes. Lineup locks, matchup-based fantasy scoops and shadow coverage intel are integrated for each game to help with start/sit calls and wagering decisions.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projection
Buccaneers 23, Falcons 21 | O/U 43.8 | Buccaneers win prob 57%
Fantasy & Betting Notes
Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving and Kyle Pitts are lineup locks. Emeka Egbuka’s slump and Mike Evans’ expected return make Egbuka a boom-or-bust WR3. Betting angle: low-ish total — consider fading volatile receiving props for Falcons; Buccaneers slight favorite.
Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears
Projection
Bears 24, Browns 18 | O/U 42.3 | Bears win prob 69%
Fantasy & Betting Notes
Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin Jr. locked. Shedeur Sanders flashed with strong rushing upside but remains a fringe fantasy QB2. Cleveland’s defense has limited WR production—Rome Odunze (if active) should be downgraded; DJ Moore and Luther Burden III best used as flexes only if targets hold. Betting angle: Bears favored; expect a lower-scoring affair.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Projection
Bengals 26, Ravens 24 | O/U 49.9 | Bengals win prob 55%
Fantasy & Betting Notes
Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Derrick Henry and Ja’Marr Chase clear locks. Isaiah Likely’s usage spike makes him a viable TE streaming option against Cincinnati’s weak TE defense. Zay Flowers faces tough shadowing from DJ Turner — downgrade him for Week 15. Betting angle: high total—consider OVER and cautious exposure to Flowers receiving props.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Projection
Chiefs 24, Chargers 19 | O/U 43.0 | Chiefs win prob 64%
Fantasy & Betting Notes
Rashee Rice, Ladd McConkey and Travis Kelce locks. Chargers’ defense clamps down on perimeter receivers—downgrade Chiefs’ outside receiving depth; Rice remains playable. Betting angle: Chiefs favored; tight game projection suggests avoiding risky long-shot parlays here.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Projection
Patriots 27, Bills 24 | O/U 50.7 | Patriots win prob 61%
Fantasy & Betting Notes
James Cook and Stefon Diggs among lineup locks. Patriots running back timeshare (Rhamondre Stevenson/TreVeyon Henderson) limits fantasy upside despite a strong matchup. Betting angle: high total — consider player prop markets for QB/WR scoring and fade both RBs as standalone plays.
Washington Commanders at New York Giants
Projection
Giants 29, Commanders 24 | O/U 52.0 | Giants win prob 61%
Fantasy & Betting Notes
Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin headline locks. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has upside in a Giants run-favorable defense; Tyrone Tracy Jr. status matters for Giants RB value. Paulson Adebo is likely to shadow McLaurin—slightly downgrade McLaurin and favor Samuel. Betting angle: big total and shootout potential—target receiving touchdown props for Giants’ pass-catchers.
Las Vegas Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles
Projection
Eagles 24, Raiders 13 | O/U 36.8 | Eagles win prob 85%
Fantasy & Betting Notes
Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are locks. Ashton Jeanty’s heavy usage keeps him roster-worthy despite inefficiency. Betting angle: Eagles heavy favorites; consider laying points or backing the Eagles’ lower-variance props.
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
Projection
Jaguars 28, Jets 15 | O/U 42.8 | Jaguars win prob 89%
Fantasy & Betting Notes
Travis Etienne Jr. locked. Breece Hall’s inconsistency, QB uncertainty and a tough Jaguars run defense give him serious bust risk—avoid starting him unless desperate. Betting angle: Jaguars strong favorites—consider backing Jacksonville moneyline and fading Jets rushing props.
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans
Projection
Texans 24, Cardinals 16 | O/U 39.9 | Texans win prob 79%
Fantasy & Betting Notes
Jacoby Brissett’s strong streak makes him a streaming candidate in softer matchups but he’s a sit vs. Houston. Texans have the stingiest pass defense—downgrade Cardinals receivers; Marvin Harrison Jr. is playable if healthy but carries added bust risk. Betting angle: Texans favored; under on receiving big-play props.
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos
Projection
Packers 24, Broncos 24 | O/U 47.6 | Packers win prob 50%
Fantasy & Betting Notes
Josh Jacobs and Courtland Sutton among locks. Denver may shadow either Romeo Doubs or Christian Watson with Pat Surtain II—Watson’s recent surge is tempered by tough matchup. Betting angle: toss-up game—consider conservative spreads and monitor WR shadow matchups for prop plays.
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams
Projection
Rams 30, Lions 24 | O/U 54.3 | Rams win prob 72%
Fantasy & Betting Notes
Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Davante Adams are locks. Blake Corum’s breakout is likely a one-off; Rams receiving corps gets a boost versus Detroit’s depleted secondary — Nacua and Adams have upside. Betting angle: highest O/U of the week—look to the OVER and Rams receiver touchdown props.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Projection
Panthers 20, Saints 19 | O/U 39.0 | Panthers win prob 52%
Fantasy & Betting Notes
Rico Dowdle and Chris Olave highlighted. Tyler Shough’s rushing floor gives superflex value, but he’s not a one-QB streaming target. Betting angle: low total and close spread—lean towards game props tied to the run game.
Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers
Projection
49ers 29, Titans 18 | O/U 46.7 | 49ers win prob 86%
Fantasy & Betting Notes
Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle locks. Tony Pollard’s sudden explosion looks unsustainable; treat him as a risky flex. 49ers receivers are in an upgrade spot vs. Tennessee. Betting angle: back 49ers to cover and consider WR receiving yards/TD props.
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks
Projection
Seahawks 25, Colts 16 | O/U 40.8 | Seahawks win prob 79%
Fantasy & Betting Notes
Jonathan Taylor and Jaxon Smith-Njigba locks. Daniel Jones is out for the season; rookie Riley Leonard’s mobility changes Colts’ passing volume and suppresses receiver upside. Seattle’s defense limits perimeter production—downgrade Colts WRs. Betting angle: Seahawks favored; avoid Colts passing props.
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys
Projection
Cowboys 25, Vikings 21 | O/U 45.9 | Cowboys win prob 63%
Fantasy & Betting Notes
CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson locks. Jake Ferguson’s target volume has dipped—he’s still TE1-adjacent but with lower upside. Minnesota’s defense has limited WR scoring—downgrade Dallas receivers slightly. Betting angle: Cowboys favored but low volatility—consider player-specific props over game totals.
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers
Projection
Steelers 22, Dolphins 21 | O/U 42.9 | Steelers win prob 54%
Fantasy & Betting Notes
De’Von Achane expected to play but is injury risk; Jaylen Wright emerged as lead insurance and should be stashed if Achane is questionable. Betting angle: monitor Achane status for late adjustments; if out, target Wright rushing props.
How to Use This Guide for Betting and Fantasy
Betting Priorities
Target overs in Rams-Lions and Bengals-Ravens. Back heavy favorites (Jaguars, 49ers) for safe moneyline plays. Use shadow and matchup intel to fade specific WR or TE props.
Fantasy Priorities
Lock in high-usage backs and elite pass-catchers, downgrade players facing shadow coverage or stacked defenses, and avoid RBs in heavy timeshares even in plus matchups.
Final Notes
This Week 15 slate features a mix of high-scoring shootouts and low totals. Use team projections, shadow coverage, and usage trends to shape last-minute lineup and betting decisions.
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An all-encompassing look at the matchups to exploit or avoid and lineup locks in fantasy, as well as projected scores for all NFL games.
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