Wales were thumped 3-0 by England and head into a crucial qualifier with Belgium bruised and cautious. For punters, Belgium now looks the safer outright bet in Cardiff, while value could be found on Wales with a +1 Asian handicap or backing under 2.5 goals if Wales tighten up defensively.
Wales were taken apart by England inside the first 20 minutes of Thursday's friendly as three early goals exposed a worrying gulf in class. Although Wales avoided further damage and the game finished 3-0, the heavy start underlined concerns ahead of Monday's crucial World Cup qualifier against Belgium in Cardiff.
Manager Craig Bellamy defended the decision to face a top-level opponent so close to the Belgium fixture, insisting the match was part of preparation despite the painful scoreline. Wales must beat Belgium to keep hopes of finishing top of their qualification group alive; their strong Nations League form last year, however, still makes a March playoff spot likely.
Leeds midfielder Ethan Ampadu admitted the dressing room felt the sting of the defeat but said the squad are determined to respond. "We came here with the highest expectations of ourselves. We wanted to put on a better performance," he said, adding that whether egos are bruised or not, "we have to pick ourselves up as a team, which we will do."
Wales received strong applause from their travelling fans at the final whistle, and players are counting on even louder backing at Cardiff City Stadium for the Belgium test. Ampadu praised the support and warned that Monday will be a big occasion the squad are relishing.
Wales trailed 3-0 to Belgium in the first half of a prior meeting in June before mounting a comeback to draw level, only to concede a late winner. A Bournemouth forward in the squad reflected that the team should have learned from that experience: starting poorly against a high-quality opponent makes for a long night, and early concentration will be vital if Wales are to keep qualification hopes alive.
The heavy defeat to England has shifted perceptions ahead of the Belgium game. Expect markets to favour Belgium for an away win in Cardiff; conservative punters may look at Wales on a +1 handicap or shorter match goals markets (under 2.5) if they anticipate a defensive, cautious Welsh setup.
Ethan Ampadu has insisted "bruised" Wales will recover from their Wembley defeat against England and bounce back for Monday's World Cup qualifier against Belgium.
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