Fabio Capello sees Inter as favourites for the Derby della Madonnina but warns Rafael Leao is the deciding factor — his form makes Milan a risky punt. Betting angle: back Inter to win but consider a Leao performance prop or a "both teams to score" market if Leao and returning Pulisic start, as counter-attacks could unlock either defence.
Capello backs Inter as favourites ahead of the Derby della Madonnina
Former Milan coach Fabio Capello has weighed in ahead of Sunday’s Derby della Madonnina at San Siro, calling Inter the “superior” side while stressing the match could hinge on Rafael Leao’s mood and sharpness. The game kicks off at 19:45 GMT and could prove decisive in the Serie A title race.
Derby atmosphere and psychological stakes
Capello described the derby as a unique event for the city and the country, a fixture that breeds tension and obsession throughout the week. He warned coaches against overloading players with instructions, arguing the occasion naturally amplifies pressure and focus.
Allegri’s return and tactical battle
Max Allegri’s return to the Rossoneri bench after a long absence adds intrigue, with Capello suggesting Allegri’s experience and tactical nous make Milan capable of troubling Inter. The coach will be tasked with making his players believe they can overcome a side currently regarded as stronger on paper.
Pulisic’s comeback and counter-attacking threat
Christian Pulisic’s return from injury is highlighted as a potential factor. Capello believes Pulisic, alongside Leao, can pose serious problems on the break, increasing Milan’s threat in transition and forcing Inter to guard against quick counters.
Leao — the unpredictable X-factor
Leao remains the central variable. Capello praised his ability to “create something out of nothing” but warned of his inconsistency, likening his impact to a coin toss: brilliance or frustration. For coaches and bettors alike, Leao’s form on matchday will be pivotal.
What this means for bettors
With Capello’s view favouring Inter, markets may tighten around them as favourites. However, Leao’s volatility and Pulisic’s return make player performance props and "both teams to score" or goal-scorer markets attractive alternatives for punters seeking value beyond the match-winner line.
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