Italy heading for World Cup play-offs despite third-highest points tally in Europe

Italy's 2-0 win in Moldova still likely leaves them headed for World Cup play-offs unless they shock Norway by nine goals. Betting impact: avoid backing Italy to top Group I; consider Norway to finish first or stake on Italy in play-off qualification markets and Asian-handicap lines.

Italy’s Moldova win not enough to avoid World Cup play-offs

Italy secured a 2-0 victory away to Moldova but remain second in Group I on 18 points from seven matches. With Norway on 21 points, the Azzurri need an extraordinary nine-goal win in their San Siro clash to overhaul the leaders and claim direct qualification.

Qualification picture: tough road to automatic spot

Only the top team in each European qualifying group advances directly to the 2026 World Cup. Norway’s perfect record and England’s matching points total mean Italy sit third in Europe’s points table despite winning six of seven. Barring a miraculous result in the final group game, Italy are set to enter the play-off route once again.

Gattuso’s verdict

Gennaro Gattuso criticised the system after the Moldova win, arguing it feels unjust that a side with 18 points must still face extra matches to qualify. “In my day, the top team in each group would go through, plus the best runners-up. We’ve got 18 points, won six games, and still we have to go into another two matches to qualify. It doesn’t seem right,” he said.

What this means for the Azzurri and punters

For Italy, the likely play-off route adds pressure and matches to navigate before a World Cup berth can be secured. For bettors, the realistic expectation is that Norway will top Group I, so avoid backing Italy to win the group. Value is stronger in markets that reflect Italy reaching and navigating the play-offs, match-winner bets for individual fixtures, or Asian handicap lines where Italy’s superior quality may show up across two-legged ties. Consider outright Norway to finish first or look at Italy in play-off qualification and aggregate-handicap markets where pricing may be more favourable.

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