Italy learn 2026 World Cup play-off draw potential rivals

Italy’s Pot 1 placement gives them a favorable semi against a Pot 4 side, making them strong favorites to reach the play-off final. Punters may consider backing Italy in the semi (match odds or -1 handicap), while pricing should reflect upset risk from North Macedonia or Sweden.

Italy in Pot 1 as 2026 World Cup play-off draw approaches

Italy has been placed in Pot 1 for the European 2026 World Cup play-offs, setting up a semi-final clash against one of the Pot 4 teams. The group stage concluded with 12 nations qualifying directly for the tournament: Croatia, England, France, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Austria, Belgium and Scotland. The play-off draw takes place on Thursday 20 November at 12:00 GMT.

Play-off format and key dates

Four pots determine the play-off paths. Italy, as a top-seeded side in Pot 1, will face an unseeded Pot 4 opponent in a two-legged semi on 26 March. If they progress, the play-off final is scheduled for 31 March, with the winner securing a World Cup berth.

Pot breakdown

Pot 1: Italy, Turkey, Ukraine, Denmark Pot 2: Wales, Slovakia, Poland, Czechia Pot 3: Republic of Ireland, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo Pot 4: Sweden, Romania, North Macedonia, Northern Ireland

Wales’ 7-1 win over North Macedonia sealed second place in their group and confirmed Wales in Pot 2, pushing North Macedonia into the unseeded ranks. That reshuffle preserves a potentially kinder semi for Pot 1 teams.

Historical context and upset warnings

Italy knows the risk of complacency: North Macedonia famously knocked Italy out of the 2022 play-offs, and Sweden ended Italy’s hopes prior to the 2018 tournament when the format was different. Those shocks underline that seeded status doesn’t guarantee progression.

Betting outlook and tactical angles for punters

Italy’s Pot 1 status should make them favorites to win the semi, particularly if drawn against a Pot 4 side where squad depth and quality typically tilt the odds. Punters might favor Italy on match odds or a -1 handicap in the semi. However, given past upsets, prudent bettors should limit stakes or combine selections with conservative lines (e.g., Italy win + both teams under/shorter accumulators). Monitor the draw and home/away legs for significant pricing shifts.

Injuries, play-offs and inconsistency: Italy must break cycles of misery

What to watch at the draw

Key factors that will influence markets immediately after the draw: which Pot 4 side Italy draws, the venue order for the two legs, and recent form and injuries. Those details will determine how bookmakers adjust odds and whether Italy’s favorite tag tightens or softens.

Italy now know that the World Cup play-off semi-final opponent in Thursday’s draw will be...

Football Italia