Injury concerns leave Italy’s backline uncertain ahead of the Northern Ireland play-off. Punters: Italy are still favourites, but defensive doubts make Both Teams To Score or an Italy -1 Asian handicap sensible options rather than backing a low-scoring outright win.
Italy XI emerging as injuries reshape Gattuso’s plans ahead of Northern Ireland
After the first day of training, Italy’s squad shows early signs of the starting XI for the World Cup play-off semi-final at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo on Thursday (19:45 GMT). Several key players are carrying knocks, forcing last-minute changes and uncertainty in Gennaro Gattuso’s selection.
Key injury doubts and defensive reshuffle
Federico Chiesa has been sent home and Nicolò Cambiaghi has been called into the squad. Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Sandro Tonali and Gianluca Mancini are all doubtful. If Bastoni or Calafiori cannot make it, Federico Gatti is the most likely replacement in the back three, raising questions about defensive cohesion.
Midfield and wing options under consideration
Gattuso is expected to deploy a 3-5-2 system with Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal and wearing the captain’s armband. Manuel Locatelli, Nicolò Barella and Federico Dimarco are pushing for midfield and wing roles. Davide Frattesi is the primary alternative should Tonali be unavailable. Matteo Politano looked likely to start despite being spotted with a shin bandage.
Striker situation: experience preferred over in-form youth
Gianluca Scamacca is definitely ruled out for the semi-final, meaning Moise Kean and Mateo Retegui are set to lead the attack. Inter youngster Francesco Pio Esposito’s recent form has impressed, but it has not been enough yet to displace the established striking duo.
Predicted Italy (3-5-2)
Donnarumma; Calafiori, Mancini, Bastoni; Politano, Locatelli, Tonali, Barella, Dimarco; Kean, Retegui
Betting implications
With Italy still favourites but with defensive doubts, markets may shorten on an Italian win while increasing value on both teams scoring or a handicap option for Italy.
Ronaldo Nazário backs Neymar's presence at the 2026 World Cup
Bettors should monitor late fitness updates for Bastoni and Calafiori before committing to markets that hinge on defensive solidity.
Football Italia
