Unlucky Italy met the most in-form European team in World Cup qualifiers

With Italy locked into World Cup playoffs and needing an improbable nine-goal win to top Group I, punters should favour Norway — back Norway match-winner or Erling Haaland to score. Markets like Norway Match Odds, Haaland anytime scorer and Over 2.5/3.5 goals present the clearest value given Norway’s scoring rampage.

Italy consigned to World Cup playoffs despite strong points haul

Italy have secured a place in the World Cup playoffs in March but will not qualify automatically unless they win Group I. Despite six wins from seven matches and a high points total, the Azzurri face an almost impossible target to finish top of the group.

What Italy would need to top Group I

Only group winners qualify directly for the 2026 World Cup; runners-up proceed to playoffs. To overtake Norway, Italy would need a victory by nine goals in their final game — a margin that makes direct qualification effectively out of reach.

Norway’s blistering qualifying form

Norway have won every group match to date, scoring 33 goals in seven games and conceding just four for a +29 goal difference. Their dominance outstrips other European sides in qualifying, making them the overwhelming favourite in the decisive fixture.

Erling Haaland leading the charge

Erling Haaland tops the European qualifying charts with 14 goals and remains Norway’s primary threat. If Norway score at San Siro they would also set a landmark for goals scored in World Cup qualifying groups of five teams, underscoring their offensive potency.

Pressure on Italy after recent World Cup failures

Italy’s failure to qualify for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups has increased scrutiny on the national team. Even with solid results this campaign, the narrow path to automatic qualification and the need to navigate playoffs add real pressure on players and coaching staff in the coming months.

Gattuso leaves three players out of Italy squad for Norway game

Betting implications and market angles

Form and numbers point to Norway as the sensible bet: backing Norway to win, Haaland to score, or markets with higher totals (Over 2.5/3.5) are sensible value plays. Handicap and long-shot Italy-overturn markets look risky given the nine-goal gap required to change group standings. Punters should also monitor team news and odds shifts close to kickoff.

Italy may no longer be the dominant force they once were, but the Azzurri have...

Football Italia