From Burnley’s home form to Leeds’ optimism and Wolves’ nightmare start, the Premier League’s bottom half already looks brutal. But history tells you that staying calm and spotting value early can pay off big for bettors.
Seven games in and the bottom half already feels like a season of its own. Just nine points separate Sunderland in ninth from Wolves at the foot of the table. Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland, all promoted this year, have brought energy and ambition, but every point matters.
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Of course, before you choose your sportsbook and make your picks, here’s the current state of play in the Premier League and a long-term look at which clubs could be circling the drain by spring 2026.
Burnley’s Turf Moor Blueprint
You can see what Scott Parker’s trying to build at Burnley. There’s shape there, commitment too, but staying up will come down to what happens at Turf Moor. Their only success so far, a 2-0 win against Sunderland, showed what they’re capable of when they press high and scrap for every second ball. It’s never going to be pretty, and that’s fine.
Most of the damage has come away from home, four defeats and most of the goals conceded, and that’s what happens when a new side goes chasing games on the road. At home, though, they’ve got half a chance. Turn those tight afternoons into points and they’ll make a season of it.
Leeds Look Competitive But Luck Needs to Turn
Leeds look like they belong back in the big time and Daniel Farke deserves a lot of credit for that. He’s built a team with proper height, presence and purpose, and Elland Road feels alive again. Eight points from seven matches, three of them against the current top four, is no small thing, but they’ve let moments slip that should have gone their way.
It’s those details that will decide whether they hang on. A couple of deflections here, a missed chance there and the story changes fast. Farke knows that mood can turn overnight in a survival fight, and his job now is keeping the players steady when the pressure starts to bite.
Wolves Staring into the Abyss
It’s been a grim start for Vítor Pereira’s Wolves. Winless, bottom of the table and struggling to protect leads, they’ve shown just how costly late-game errors can be. The departures of senior players have left gaps in leadership and experience, and while new recruits like Ladislav Krejci have impressed individually, the chemistry is off.
A first win could transform the mood at Molineux, but there’s no getting away from the fact that out of all the teams in this season’s relegation fight, Wolves look the most vulnerable. Don’t be surprised if by Christmas, they’re already deep in the red in the relegation markets.
West Ham and Brentford at a Crossroads
The fact that West Ham and Brentford are even in this conversation tells you how fast the Premier League moves. One minute you’re chasing Europe, the next you’re checking the table with a lump in your throat.
West Ham brought in Nuno Espírito Santo to stop the rot and stiffen a squad that’s forgotten how to win at home. You can see the intent, lines a bit tighter and tempo a bit quicker, but the confidence isn’t there yet. They look like a side waiting for something to go right, and until it does, the nerves will keep showing.
Brentford, meanwhile, have entered a new era under Keith Andrews. They’re averaging just 38.7 percent possession, down from 47.8 last year, and their pressing identity has faded. Still, they’ve never spent a single day in the relegation zone since promotion and you’d be wise not to write them off just yet.
Sensational Sunderland Set the Tone
Sunderland’s mixture of experience and youth looks the most sustainable of the three. Granit Xhaka’s arrival has steadied their midfield, and French coach Régis Le Bris has brought a calm, pragmatic system. Two home wins by mid-October and a competitive showing at Old Trafford prove they're not here to make up the numbers. The concern is depth. Summer signings Habib Diarra and Noak Sadiki are sidelined until Christmas, and both are expected to head off to the Africa Cup of Nations, only to return in late January. Staying up won’t be straightforward for the Black Cats.
Who Will Go Down?
With only a fifth of the season played there’s still plenty of soccer to come between now and May. Even so, there are early signs of where certain clubs might come unstuck. Right now, Wolves, Burnley and Brentford look the most likely to occupy the bottom three by the time the final whistle blows on matchday 38. But then again, this is the Premier League, where the unexpected has a habit of turning everything on its head.