Iran appear set to withdraw from the 2026 World Cup amid conflict with the United States, which could see their Group G spot passed to an AFC runner-up like Iraq or, controversially, a high-ranked European team such as Italy. Bettors should expect markets to shift sharply — consider backing any likely replacement (Italy) in outright and group advancement markets once FIFA confirms the decision, and avoid wagers on Iran until official confirmation.
Iran all but confirms absence from 2026 World Cup amid conflict with United States
Iran have all but confirmed they will not participate in the 2026 World Cup because of the ongoing conflict with co-hosts the United States. Sports minister Ahmad Doyanmali said the country "cannot" take part and added: “Because of the malicious measures taken against Iran, we were forced to fight two wars in eight or nine months, and thousands of our compatriots were killed. Therefore, we have no possibility of participating under these circumstances."
Most likely replacements for Iran’s Group G spot
Iran were drawn into Group G alongside Belgium, New Zealand and Egypt after securing qualification. That has prompted immediate debate over which nation would take their place if Iran withdraw.
The most straightforward solution within the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) would be another AFC representative, with Iraq the only AFC team still active in the intercontinental playoff stages.
Iraq are set to face either Bolivia or Suriname in a qualifier in March; if they win, they would be the natural successor. If Iraq fail, the United Arab Emirates — the next highest-rated AFC representative — would be the likely alternative.
AFC pathway: Iraq and the UAE
Iraq’s remaining playoff match is the clearest route into Iran’s slot. Should Iraq progress, the UAE are positioned as the next-in-line within the AFC ranking structure. National-team administrators and confederation officials will be watching those playoff results closely, as they determine the simplest, confederation-consistent replacement.
European wildcard: could Italy be parachuted in?
There are also strong rumours circulating that FIFA might favour a high-profile European replacement instead of sticking strictly to confederation rankings.
Iraq's coaching staff have heard suggestions that the federation could push to invite the highest-ranked FIFA member not to qualify — currently Italy (13th) — as the direct substitute.
Italy remain in contention via the European playoff route; they face Northern Ireland, and if they fail that tie they could meet either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina in subsequent matches. If Italy ultimately fail to qualify but FIFA opt for a rankings-based replacement, the Azzurri could be parachuted into Group G.
Competitive and betting implications for Group G
A replacement for Iran would drastically alter Group G dynamics. Belgium, New Zealand and Egypt prepared for Iran’s style and strengths; inserting a high-ranked European side like Italy would immediately make Belgium’s group campaign more precarious and increase the odds that the newcomer advances deep into the tournament. An AFC replacement such as Iraq or the UAE would be less disruptive to the expected regional balance but still change match-up projections and tactical planning.
What punters should watch
Bookmakers are likely to freeze or adjust markets as soon as any official confirmation is issued.
Bettors should:
- Avoid placing bets on Iran-related outcomes until FIFA or the Iranian federation issues a formal statement.
- Monitor the Iraq vs Bolivia/Suriname playoff result and any official FIFA guidance on replacement criteria.
- Consider backing Italy to qualify or to progress from Group G only after a credible signal that FIFA will install them as Iran’s replacement.
- Expect outright and group-stage odds to shift sharply; line movements could present value once the replacement is confirmed.
Next steps and timeline
Key dates to follow are the intercontinental playoff in March and the outcome of European playoff ties.
FIFA will have the final say on replacement procedure and timing; national federations, confederations and teams involved in playoffs should prepare for rapid decisions.
Who could replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Israel, Iraq, USA II...
Teams drawn with Iran must also be ready to adapt their preparations depending on which nation fills the vacant spot.
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