Arsenal lead Man City by five points with a game in hand as the Premier League title race enters its final phase. Forecasts project both clubs to add roughly 24 points, with Arsenal narrowly prevailing. Betting implication: punters may back Arsenal for the title outright while using Man City as a hedge; the Arsenal–Man City clash (predicted 1-1) suggests draw or draw+both teams to score markets as smart match bets.
Premier League title race: Arsenal ahead, Man City close with game in hand
Arsenal top the table with 61 points from 28 matches, while Manchester City sit five points behind on 56 with a game in hand. Aston Villa have fallen off the pace after recent results, leaving the title fight primarily between the two English heavyweights as the season reaches its decisive stage.
Current standings snapshot
1 Arsenal — Played 28: Wins 18, Draws 7, Losses 3 — Goals 56, Conceded 21, GD +35, Points 61
2 Manchester City — Played 27: Wins 17, Draws 5, Losses 5 — Goals 56, Conceded 25, GD +31, Points 56
Fixture-by-fixture forecast
Manchester City predicted run-in
28/02/26 — Leeds United (Elland Road): W 1-3
04/03/26 — Nottingham Forest (Etihad Stadium): W 2-0
14/03/26 — West Ham United (London Stadium): W 1-2
11/04/26 — Chelsea (Stamford Bridge): D 1-1
18/04/26 — Arsenal (Etihad Stadium): D 1-1
25/04/26 — Burnley (Turf Moor): W 3-0
02/05/26 — Everton (Hill Dickinson Stadium): W 1-2
09/05/26 — Brentford (Etihad Stadium): W 2-0
17/05/26 — Bournemouth (Vitality Stadium): D 2-2
24/05/26 — Aston Villa (Etihad Stadium): L 1-2 Crystal Palace (Etihad Stadium, date TBA): W 3-1
Arsenal predicted run-in
01/03/26 — Chelsea (Emirates Stadium): D 2-2
04/03/26 — Brighton & Hove Albion (Amex Stadium): W 1-2
14/03/26 — Everton (Hill Dickinson Stadium): W 0-3
11/04/26 — Bournemouth (Emirates Stadium): W 3-1
18/04/26 — Manchester City (Etihad Stadium): D 1-1
25/04/26 — Newcastle United (Emirates Stadium): W 2-1
02/05/26 — Fulham (Emirates Stadium): W 3-0
09/05/26 — West Ham United (London Stadium): W 1-2
17/05/26 — Burnley (Emirates Stadium): W 3-0
24/05/26 — Crystal Palace (Selhurst Park): D 1-1
Betting implications and market angles
With forecasts putting Arsenal five points clear and both sides projected to add about 24 points, Arsenal look the likelier title pick.
Punters might consider:
- Backing Arsenal outright for the title, while using a smaller stake on Man City as a hedge given their game in hand.
- Targeting the Arsenal–Man City Etihad clash as a draw (1-1) or draw + both teams to score (BTTS) selection.
- Favouring Arsenal and City in match-bet accumulators against lower-ranked opponents where the predictions expect comfortable wins.
- Monitoring form and team news before staking — the margins are small and a single slip could decide the championship.
Predicted final table (top two)
1 Arsenal — Played 38: Wins 25, Draws 10, Losses 3 — Goals 78, Conceded 29, GD +49, Points 85
2 Manchester City — Played 38: Wins 24, Draws 8, Losses 6 — Goals 78, Conceded 35, GD +43, Points 80
Conclusion
The title race appears set to be a two-horse contest with Arsenal holding a narrow advantage. Manchester City's game in hand keeps the suspense alive, but the forecasted results favor Arsenal to claim the crown.
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Bettors should weigh the predicted head-to-head draw and each side’s likely consistency across the remaining fixtures when building markets.
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