Raul Fernandez’s Australian GP win and mid-season recovery suggest rising form; punters might shorten his odds for podium finishes in the remaining rounds and consider placing small-value bets on Fernandez to finish top-3 or as an each-way selection in Sepang and the next races, given Aprilia’s pace and renewed confidence.
Raul Fernandez’s Turnaround: From Struggle to Australian GP Victory
Raul Fernandez has shrugged off a difficult start to the season to claim a decisive win at the Australian Grand Prix. After a string of setbacks — including a pre-season broken bone and inconsistent results that left him 19th in the standings after eight rounds — Fernandez produced a dominant performance in Australia, overcoming rivals like Pedro Acosta and avoiding the mid-race scrapping that cost him earlier.
Early Season Woes and Key Injuries
Fernandez’s year began on the back foot following a testing injury in Sepang that disrupted his preseason preparation and bike setup work. Those issues contributed to poor form and mounting pressure as teammates outscored him, deepening questions over his future and confidence. He admitted the period took a personal toll and affected his motivation.
In-Season Testing and the Confidence Reset
Mid-season tests at Jerez and Aragon proved pivotal. Team sessions, focused setup work and improved physical conditioning helped Fernandez find a better riding position and regain race pace. A sprint podium at Mandalika gave him an important boost, and the following Australian win showed the gains had matured into race-winning speed and smarter race management.
Team Backing and Leadership Support
Team leadership maintained faith in Fernandez through the tough spell, extending his contract through 2026 and investing in his rehabilitation and setup work. Management emphasised trust, clearer garage routines and targeted support from technical staff — all factors that have been credited with helping Fernandez rediscover his form.
Quotes on Progress and Expectations
Aprilia’s CEO noted disappointment in missed opportunities earlier in the season but stressed the team’s belief in Fernandez’s talent and potential for podium contention. Team leadership highlighted the importance of confidence, focused preparation and the positive effect of the recent results on his mentality heading into the final races.
Historical Context and Performance Trends
Fernandez’s earlier career showed high potential — including a dominant Moto2 season — but his transition to the premier class has seen mixed results, with 2024 and early 2025 featuring several low points. The Australia victory marks a potential inflection point, aligning his raw speed with better racecraft and setup stability.
Betting Implications and What Punters Should Consider
Fernandez’s win and the clear pace of the Aprilia in free air make him a more attractive option for podium markets and each-way bets in the immediate rounds. Punters should factor in: - Momentum and confidence: recent form surge can justify shorter outright and podium odds. - Track suitability: continue to assess circuit characteristics — Fernandez thrives where Aprilia’s top speed and stability matter. - Competition and injuries: the absence or recovery of rivals (and teammate dynamics) can further tilt value. Consider small to medium stakes for podium finishes or each-way bets rather than long-shot outright stakes until the form is confirmed over several circuits.
Outlook for the Closing Rounds
With key rivals recovering from injuries and team strategy refined, Fernandez looks set to be a regular podium contender if the current momentum holds. The team expects him to push for consistent top finishes, and upcoming tracks will be a test of whether Australia was a resurgence or a one-off. Either way, his recent trajectory suggests he will be a rider to watch in the remainder of the season.
Despite several challenging seasons in MotoGP, Raul Fernandez has always had the support of his bosses Massimo Rivola and Davide Brivio. When results weren’t going his way last year, both Rivola and Brivio kept their faith in him, and offered him a new two-year contract through 2026.However, when Fernandez only came away with a sixth-place result in Indonesia earlier this month, despite ...Keep reading
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