Bills vs. Broncos is a razor-close AFC divisional tilt: Denver is a slight home favorite (-108) while Buffalo sits at +108. Expect a tight game — consider small moneyline value on Buffalo as road underdogs or a play on Josh Allen to impact both passing and rushing scores given Buffalo’s recent form.
Bills at Broncos: AFC Divisional Preview and Betting Implications
In the NFL, the AFC divisional round pits 1-seed Denver (14-3) against 6-seed Buffalo (12-5) on Saturday, January 17, 2026, kickoff 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS. Buffalo arrives off a road playoff win; Denver had a first-round bye and is listed as a narrow home favorite.
Recent Form and Momentum
Buffalo’s surge
Buffalo opened its postseason with a road victory over Jacksonville. Josh Allen completed 28-of-35 passes for 280 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions, while contributing on the ground with 11 carries for 33 yards and two rushing touchdowns. James Cook and the Bills’ tight ends have been key contributors to a balanced attack.
Denver’s status
Denver finished the regular season with the AFC’s best record and returns near full strength after the bye. The Broncos’ defense ranked among the league’s best by several metrics, but questions remain about how they’ll handle Buffalo’s rushing attack and dynamic playmakers.
Betting Market Snapshot
Early markets show a very close game: Denver roughly 52% implied chance (about -108) and Buffalo about 48% (about +108). Oddsmakers view this as a one-score contest; markets have swung in recent days, reflecting uncertainty and active money on both sides.
Matchup Keys
Can Denver slow Buffalo’s run?
Last season Buffalo dominated this Broncos defense on the ground, totaling 210 rushing yards and a touchdown on 44 carries. That game saw Allen rush eight times for 46 yards and Cook record 120 yards on 23 carries, allowing Buffalo to control possession and pull away. If Buffalo re-establishes a similar ground identity, Denver’s defense could be taxed.
How battle-tested is Denver?
Denver’s sterling record included wins over top quarterbacks but also several games against backups. While the Broncos beat elite opponents like Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott and Jordan Love during their surge, their lone recent loss to Jacksonville when facing a full-strength contender raised concerns about how they fare under playoff pressure.
Prediction and Betting Notes
Pick: Buffalo to advance. Josh Allen’s playoff résumé (strong production and mobility) paired with a physical run game and effective tight-end usage gives Buffalo a path to control the clock and limit Denver’s defensive impact. For bettors: Buffalo’s moneyline at about +108 offers value as a small-stakes play; more conservative bettors might look for plays related to Allen’s rushing props or Buffalo to control time of possession. Given the closeness of markets, keep stakes modest and consider hedged or correlated lines rather than single large wagers.
In a rematch of last year's AFC Wild Card matchup, Josh Allen and the Bills are slight road underdogs in Denver.
Newsweek
