Canada and the U.S. grabbed the top two seeds and quarterfinal byes; Sweden’s early slips and Slovakia’s surprise group win reshape medal paths. For bettors: Canada is the favorite, but Sweden’s dip and Slovakia’s surge create value on underdog and live-futures markets — backing the U.S. or a Slovakia upset could pay if odds shift in knockouts.
Group-stage recap: Canada and USA assert dominance, Sweden falters
Canada and the United States each went 3-0-0 in the preliminary round at the Olympic Games, securing the top two seeds and byes to the quarterfinals. Canada outscored opponents 20-3 across three games; the U.S. posted a 16-5 goal differential. Sweden, expected to be the third power, struggled — a loss to Finland and a shock result against Italy raised questions about their form. Slovakia impressed by winning its group ahead of Sweden and Finland.
Knockout qualifiers and quarterfinal byes
Winners earning quarterfinal byes: Canada, United States, Slovakia and Finland. The other eight teams meet in knockout qualifiers to fill the remaining quarterfinal spots.
Tuesday’s qualifying matchups
No. 5 Switzerland vs. No. 12 Italy No. 6 Germany vs. No. 11 France No. 7 Sweden vs. No. 10 Latvia No. 8 Czechia vs. No. 9 Denmark
Bracket implications and potential medal paths
The bracket places the United States on a path where they would face the winner of Sweden vs. Latvia in the qualifier. A U.S. victory there would likely set up a semi-final against the winner of Slovakia vs. the Germany/France winner. Any USA–Canada matchup is structured to occur only in the medal games (gold or bronze), keeping the top North American rivalry out of earlier rounds.
Sweden’s slump and Slovakia’s rise
Sweden’s underperformance shifts the tournament dynamic: a team many expected to reach the podium now faces a tougher route and lower perceived chances, which can influence odds across markets. Slovakia’s strong group showing marks them as a dark horse, forcing bettors and oddsmakers to reassess upset potential.
Current gold probabilities and market context
Prediction-market prices and public markets have moved to reflect the group-stage results: Canada sits well ahead as the favorite, the United States remains a strong second, Finland and Sweden trail, and Slovakia is considered a long shot with potential upside. Current market probabilities (approximate): Canada 54%, United States 31%, Finland 7%, Sweden 5%, Slovakia 1%, others <1%.
What this means for bettors
The takeaway for punters:
- Canada is the clear favorite; backing them is the conservative play.
- The U.S. remains a viable futures bet, especially if market momentum or lines soften after qualifiers.
- Sweden’s decline could create value on upset markets — bookmakers may shorten prices on Sweden even after subpar form, so shop lines.
- Slovakia’s form suggests small, targeted bets as a dark-horse play in futures or specific-match markets.
- Consider live betting and line movement during qualifiers; standout goalie performances or late goals can meaningfully shift value.
Key points to watch in the knockout phase
Team form vs. pre-tournament expectations, goaltending consistency, and how coaches adjust to the knockout format will be decisive. Watch qualifier outcomes closely — they will set the quarterfinal dynamics and likely alter market prices for medals and futures.
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