Fantasy Football 2025: Fantasy-friendly offenses report for Week 2

Baltimore’s high EPA offense and an 11.5-point home line make the Ravens a likely cover candidate; punters might favor Baltimore moneyline or team total over for Week 1. Expect Cleveland’s rookie pass-catchers to draw volume, boosting prop value for their targets and receptions in a game script favoring the pass.

Week 1 Offensive Snapshots and Betting Angles

Chargers at Raiders — Pass-First Offense Meets Division Rival

Los Angeles enters the matchup as a pass-first unit that runs an above-average offensive play volume. The Chargers’ tendency to air it out creates favorable conditions for wide receivers and passing-game props, particularly in games that project to be high-scoring or close. Against Las Vegas, expect the Chargers to lean on the pass early, which supports targeting player props for receptions, receiving yards and touchdown chances.

Falcons at Vikings — Injuries Reshape Targets

Atlanta’s pass-catching corps has been altered by injuries, shifting target share toward tight ends and pass-catching running backs. That adjustment forces the quarterback to redistribute throws to fantasy-friendly positions, increasing ceiling for non-WR skill players. Minnesota’s defense will influence play-calling, but the Falcons’ internal redistribution makes tight end and running back receiving props more attractive than usual.

Cleveland Rookies and Baltimore — Rookie Volume vs. Elite Offense

Cleveland’s rookie tight end and running back earned heavy target volume in Week 1, each logging eight-plus targets and strong receiving grades. Baltimore’s defense allowed an above-average EPA per play to hybrid pass-catchers, making Cleveland’s pass-reliant offense likely to feed those rookies targets. On the flip side, Baltimore’s offense ranks near the top in EPA per play and enters Week 1 as an 11.5-point home favorite, a game script that projects comfortable scoring and a home-side cover.

Key Metrics to Monitor

Neutral Game Run/Pass Split and Play Volume

Neutral game run and pass percentages help forecast play-calling tendencies when neither team holds a strong scripted advantage. Teams with high neutral pass rates can inflate receiving opportunities, while high run rates suppress them. Play volume and pace amplify these effects — more snaps equals more fantasy and prop opportunities.

Success Rate and EPA Per Play

Success rate and expected points added (EPA) per play identify offenses that efficiently convert plays into points. Teams with high EPA per play are more likely to sustain drives and generate scoring opportunities, which matters for team total and player touchdown props.

Matchup and Betting Recommendations

Target Ravens moneyline or point-spread bets favoring Baltimore to cover, given their offensive efficiency and projected line. Consider targeting Cleveland rookies in target- or reception-based player props because of their early-season volume and matchups that have been vulnerable to hybrid pass-catchers. For the Chargers game, focus on receiver yardage and touchdown props; for the Falcons, prioritize tight end and pass-catching running back props.

Final Takeaways

Matchup context, play volume and EPA remain the strongest predictors for both fantasy value and betting edges. Track target distributions and neutral game tendencies when setting or wagering on player props and game totals — early-season shifts due to injuries or usage can create sharp value before lines fully adjust.

Nic Bodiford breaks down the NFL offenses that have the most fantasy-friendly matchups in Week 2.

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