PFF Power Ratings Release: NFL risers and upcoming schedules ahead of Week 4

Week 3 power-rating shifts favor Buffalo, Philadelphia and Detroit, while Carolina, Minnesota and Washington climbed most. Betting takeaway: Buffalo’s soft four-game stretch makes them a strong survivor-pool and big-spread candidate (expect chalk in Week 4), while Cincinnati’s brutal slate and Minnesota’s QB change suggest caution—consider fading the Bengals and backing the Vikings in lower-juice lines while Wentz starts.

Week 3 Power-Rating Snapshot

Week 3 produced meaningful movement across the league’s power ratings. A handful of teams climbed after dominant wins while others slid following blowouts or tough losses. These shifts matter for short-term lines and futures, especially when teams face soft or brutal upcoming schedules.

Top Weekly Risers

Carolina Panthers (+1.5)

Carolina’s offensive line set the tone, keeping Bryce Young clean in a rout of the Falcons. The Panthers covered by nearly 35 points as 4.5-point road underdogs, and the defense pitched a shutout while holding Michael Penix Jr. to a low grade. The net result: a sizable bump in Carolina’s power rating and renewed betting value in favorable matchups.

Minnesota Vikings (+1.5)

The Vikings thumped Cincinnati by 38 points with both teams turning to backups. Carson Wentz steadied the offense in J.J. McCarthy’s absence and Minnesota’s power rating didn’t suffer. With McCarthy expected to miss a few weeks, Wentz now has a clear window to prove himself — a factor bettors should weigh when projecting short-term spreads and QB prop markets.

Washington Commanders (+1.0)

Washington’s defensive surge produced a boost in the ratings despite Jayden Daniels missing time. The pass rush overwhelmed Seattle and Marcus Mariota graded out strongly in relief, so even with Daniels’ potential return, Washington’s defense has earned bettors’ attention in low-total and under-market scenarios.

Hardest Upcoming Four-Game Slates

Atlanta Falcons (Avg Opp PR: 3.4)

W4: WAS (1.8) | W5: BYE | W6: BUF (6.0) | W7: @SF (2.4) Notes: The Falcons get a bye that helps, but they face two top-rated opponents in Buffalo and San Francisco. Expect bookmakers to keep tight lines against Atlanta in those weeks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Avg Opp PR: 3.0)

W4: PHI (6.0) | W5: @SEA (-0.4) | W6: SF (2.4) | W7: @DET (4.0) Notes: Tampa Bay opens the stretch with a tough home date against Philadelphia and then hosts San Francisco. Long travel and quality opponents suggest laying points against the Bucs will be costly.

Cincinnati Bengals (Avg Opp PR: 2.4)

W4: @DEN (1.0) | W5: DET (4.0) | W6: @GB (5.8) | W7: PIT (-1.0) Notes: After a 38-point loss in Minnesota, the Bengals face a sequence that includes two top-five teams by current ratings. Cincinnati’s line exposure and total volatility should be treated with caution.

Easiest Upcoming Four-Game Slates

Buffalo Bills (Avg Opp PR: -3.6)

W4: NO (-8.1) | W5: NE (-2.5) | W6: @ATL (-0.3) | W7: BYE Notes: Buffalo presents a favorable betting profile over the next month. Week 4 projects as a heavy favorite (16.5 points at home vs. New Orleans), making the Bills a popular survivor pick and a likely candidate to cash big-spread tickets.

New England Patriots (Avg Opp PR: -3.3)

W4: CAR (-5.1) | W5: @BUF (6.0) | W6: @NO (-8.1) | W7: @TEN (-5.9) Notes: Power ratings favor New England’s run of opponents, but three straight road games complicate matters. Lines may understate travel fatigue; look for middling value in markets that adjust for travel.

Carolina Panthers (Avg Opp PR: -3.1)

W4: @NE (-2.5) | W5: MIA (-3.1) | W6: DAL (-1.7) | W7: @NYJ (-4.9) Notes: Carolina’s recent climb and a friendly schedule create spot-betting opportunities, though Dallas in Week 6 remains a stiff test.

Betting Implications and Strategy

Short-term power-rating shifts should inform, not dictate, wagers. Key takeaways: - Favor chalk on Buffalo this stretch: soft opponents and a bye make them a strong survivor and large-spread candidate. - Be cautious with Cincinnati: recent collapse and a tough slate increase the chance of cover failures and inflated totals. - Monitor Minnesota’s QB situation: Wentz’s early success suggests backing the Vikings in moderate-spread spots, but adjust if McCarthy returns earlier than expected. - Look for defensive value: teams that rose on strong defensive showings (Washington, Carolina) can be profitable in low-total and under-bet markets.

Use these ratings and schedule trends to target mispriced lines, exploit favorable matchups, and temper long-shot futures that don’t account for short-term strength swings.

Every week of the NFL season delivers new market signals, and few tools are sharper than power ratings for cutting through the noise. PFF’s updated ratings don’t just show who’s playing well — they reveal where perception and reality may be drifting apart. In this article, we highlight the three teams that gained the most ... Continue reading "PFF Power Ratings Release: NFL risers and upcoming schedules ahead of Week 4"

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