40 in 40: The Bulldogs’ most important player in 2025

Blake Shapen’s return to health and extra eligibility makes Mississippi State’s offense a must-watch. Bettors should expect a boost to Bulldogs’ passing totals and QB props; consider the Over on team passing yards and Shapen’s passing TD prop if lines don’t reflect his 974 yards and eight TDs in four 2024 games.

Blake Shapen: Mississippi State’s X‑Factor at Quarterback

Blake Shapen arrives in Starkville with a résumé that reads like a veteran signal-caller’s handbook. A Shreveport native and four‑star prospect from Evangel Christian Academy, Shapen piled up 2,049 passing yards with 24 touchdowns and five interceptions in high school while adding 324 rushing yards and five scores. He was also a top baseball shortstop prospect before choosing Baylor over several Power Five suitors.

College Career and Breakout Moments

Shapen’s Baylor tenure began in 2020 with no game action, then moved into meaningful snaps in 2021 when he played six games and started twice. His most notable early moment came in the Big 12 title game against Oklahoma State, where he completed a collegiate-record 17 consecutive passes and threw for 180 yards and three touchdowns. In 2022 he started 13 games, earned Honorable Mention All-Big 12 honors and threw for 2,709 yards, 18 TDs and 10 interceptions. In 2023 he started eight games and produced 2,188 passing yards, 13 TDs and three interceptions before an injury ended his season.

2024 Transfer to Mississippi State and Injury Setback

After four seasons at Baylor, Shapen transferred to Mississippi State to run Jeff Lebby’s up-tempo offense. An early-season injury in 2024 limited him to four games, but he was efficient: 974 passing yards and eight touchdowns — totals that ranked third in the SEC over that span. A medical hardship waiver restored his eligibility, giving him another season to lead the Bulldogs.

Why Shapen Matters for 2025

Experience. Talent. Leadership. Those three traits encapsulate Shapen’s value. He’s started 27 of 31 collegiate games, amassed more than 6,500 career passing yards and 44 career touchdowns, and has proven he can execute in big games. For a Mississippi State roster seeking a leap after modest win totals, stability at quarterback with a seasoned starter can accelerate offensive development and keep defenses on their heels.

Betting Implications and What Punters Should Consider

Shapen’s profile changes how bettors should view Mississippi State lines. Expect higher team passing totals and more attractive QB props when books price markets conservatively. Specific angles: - Consider the Over on Mississippi State team passing yards if the opposing defense struggled vs. the pass last season. - Target Shapen passing yards and passing TD props; his efficiency in limited 2024 action suggests upside. - Factor injury history into longer-term wagers; avoid oversized futures on season-long availability until week-to-week status is clear. - Live and prop markets could offer value once depth charts and injury reports are finalized.

Bottom Line

Shapen is the obvious yet crucial centerpiece for Mississippi State’s offense. When healthy, his experience and production make the Bulldogs more explosive and unpredictable. For coaches, teammates and bettors, his health and comfort in Lebby’s system will be the primary barometer for Mississippi State’s 2025 offensive ceiling.

With Mississippi State its first game week of the season, we take a look at who will be the Bulldogs' most important player in 2025.

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