CFP bubble chaos could leave Texas out despite their push for an at-large berth; bettors may avoid Texas in futures and instead target teams with clearer paths. North Texas is a 3-point favorite over Tulane in the AAC title — a key wagering spot for bettors seeking an under-the-radar play.
College Football Playoff Projections: Top 12 Headed into Championship Weekend
Rivalry weekend reshaped the CFP landscape and set up a dramatic stretch of conference title games that will decide several bubble spots. With the final bracket announced after the championships, every result can drastically alter seeding and at-large hopes.
Conference Championships Will Decide the Field
The committee will release another rankings update before the final bracket, but conference title games are the last major inputs. Upsets or unexpected conference winners could force the committee into difficult choices, particularly among multiple two-loss contenders.
Betting implications
Expect futures markets to react sharply to championship outcomes. Teams with clearer paths to wins or strong late-season momentum become more attractive for bettors. Short lines on conference-finals (like North Texas -3 vs Tulane) offer accessible value, while volatile bubble teams (Texas, Texas A&M, Alabama) may be safer to avoid in long-term CFP futures until titles are settled.
Top-12 Projections and Team Briefs
No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State cleared a major hurdle by outpacing Michigan and now faces undefeated Indiana for the Big Ten crown in Indianapolis. A win would cement top seeding; even a loss could keep them near the top depending on other results.
No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana’s strong run under Curt Cignetti positions the Hoosiers for a signature upset opportunity in the conference title. Even with a loss, they could remain in a favorable committee position if they keep the game competitive.
No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia survived a gritty test against Georgia Tech and now returns to Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the SEC title with revenge on the horizon. Back-to-back high-pressure games will test depth and game planning.
No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech finished the regular season powerfully; a Big 12 title win over BYU would bolster their CFP standing and potentially secure a first-round bye. Even a close loss would likely keep them in strong contention.
No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies
After a strong start, recent vulnerability and the loss to Texas cost the Aggies an SEC title shot. How far A&M falls in the final rankings will depend on committee perception and other conference outcomes.
No. 6 Oregon Ducks
Oregon closed the regular season with big wins over USC and Washington and projects to host a first-round playoff game if they hold position. Momentum and a favorable matchup could help their seeding.
No. 7 Ole Miss Rebels
Off-field headlines swirl around Ole Miss, but the committee historically focuses on on-field results. Coaching changes could be a distraction, though the team’s resume suggests the committee won’t heavily penalize performance alone.
No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma survived a scare and appears likely to make the CFP. Whether they earn a home playoff game will hinge on championship results across the board.
No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama sits in a precarious spot where a loss in the SEC title would create a three-loss resume and complicate their case. A win would catapult them back into serious consideration for a higher seed.
No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame faces pressure from Miami’s resume and head-to-head win. With both teams finished with regular-season games, the committee must weigh that head-to-head result against other metrics and conference outcomes.
No. 11 Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia’s path hinges on the ACC title outcome. If Virginia secures the conference crown, they would claim an automatic berth and likely one of the final spots in the bracket, simplifying committee decisions.
No. 12 North Texas Mean Green
North Texas enters the AAC title as a 3-point favorite over Tulane. A victory would strengthen their case for a CFP berth or at least position them strongly for postseason consideration; bettors may find value on North Texas in both straight and live markets.
Bubble Watch: Who’s Most at Risk?
Texas remains in campaign mode for an at-large spot but projections still have them outside the bracket given the number of quality two-loss teams ahead. Texas A&M’s late-season slide also puts them in danger of falling behind surging challengers like Texas Tech. Notre Dame, Alabama and BYU all hover near the cut line; a single upset could flip pairings and seedings.
Key takeaways for bettors and fans
- Wait for championship outcomes before committing large CFP futures. - Target clear favorites in conference finals with short spreads for timely value. - Monitor coaching news that could affect team focus, but prioritize on-field metrics when betting.
The conference title slate will clarify the bracket picture — expect sharp movement in rankings and betting lines after kickoff in each championship game.
Sources: Vanderbilt's Lea lands 6-year extension
After a wild weekend of rivalry games, the picture is getting more chaotic for the College Football Playoff rankings. Let's explore what teams are predicted to make the CFP bracket.
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