Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Mercury-Sparks, Kelsey Mitchell)

With playoff spots in flux, back Kelsey Mitchell OVER 22.5 points (her hot streak and Indiana’s injury absences) and favor Phoenix -4 vs. the Sparks — Phoenix’s stout defense and L.A.’s poor defensive rating make Phoenix the safer cover for punters. These plays exploit lineup shifts and matchup advantages.

WNBA Playoff Race Heats Up: Tuesday’s Key Games Could Decide Final Spots

The closing weeks of the WNBA regular season bring high stakes as the No. 6 Seattle Storm host the No. 8 Indiana Fever and the No. 9 Los Angeles Sparks visit the Phoenix Mercury. Indiana’s recent loss dropped it into the No. 8 spot, and it could slide further with the Sparks lurking a game back. Injuries have plagued the Fever, while Seattle rides momentum from a dramatic win led by Nneka Ogwumike.

Matchup Snapshot: Storm vs. Fever

Seattle enters off a big victory, including a game-winner from Nneka Ogwumike, and will look to build cushion over Indiana in the standings. Indiana continues to battle injuries, which have limited perimeter depth and could leave scorers with heavier workloads. That imbalance favors the Storm, who can exploit mismatches and a fatigued opponent.

Matchup Snapshot: Mercury vs. Sparks

The Sparks are desperate to climb into the playoff picture, but they face a tough Phoenix defense and an efficient Mercury attack. Phoenix has been able to grind out wins and plays well on the road, while Los Angeles has struggled defensively over longer stretches. Expect Phoenix to control tempo and force a high-volume night from Sparks’ perimeter creators.

Injury and Lineup Notes

Indiana’s guard injuries, including the ruling out of key players, increase usage opportunities for scorers like Kelsey Mitchell. Seattle’s core (including Ogwumike) appears healthy and motivated. Phoenix’s defensive consistency gives them an edge over an inconsistent L.A. group that has allowed one of the worst defensive ratings over recent games.

Best Bets & Betting Rationale

- Player prop: Kelsey Mitchell OVER 22.5 points (-115). Mitchell has produced 38, 27 and 26 in her last three games and is averaging 23.3 points per game since the All-Star break. With depleted backcourt support for Indiana, expect Mitchell to shoulder the scoring load and see high usage and shot attempts. - Game line: Phoenix -4 (-112) vs. Los Angeles. The Mercury rank among the league’s best on defense recently and should exploit the Sparks’ defensive vulnerabilities. L.A.’s wins have often been narrow; Phoenix has the consistency to cover the spread.

Supporting Stats

- Mitchell: averaging 20.7 PPG on 45.4% FG and 39.9% 3PT on the season; 23.3 PPG since the All-Star break. - Sparks: worst defensive rating over recent stretches, making them susceptible to high-scoring opponents. - Mercury: top defensive rating in recent games and solid road form.

Record and Context

Season best-bets record noted in these plays: 2025 season 56-60 (-2.37 units). Overall since 2024: 140-135 (+2.09 units). Odds listed above are subject to change and differ by sportsbook; shop lines where possible for better value.

Final Notes for Punters

Focus on usage trends and injuries when sizing bets: Mitchell’s elevated attempts and Indiana’s depleted backcourt make her prop attractive, while Phoenix’s defensive stability and L.A.’s defensive struggles point to the Mercury covering a modest spread. Bet responsibly and consider small unit sizing on prop plays tied to clear lineup news.

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the WNBA action on Tuesday, Aug. 26.

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