Carlos Alcaraz starts as heavy favorite against Australian Adam Walton — a likely straight-sets win. Punters should expect short Alcaraz moneyline odds; consider set markets (Alcaraz 2-0) or total games over 21.5 for better value. Handicap and individual set score markets may offer the most attractive returns given Alcaraz’s dominant 2025 form.
Alcaraz vs Walton: Australian Open 2026 First-Round Preview
World No. 1 tennis Carlos Alcaraz opens his Australian Open campaign against home hope Adam Walton in a mismatch that pits last year’s dominant champion against a local wildcard. Alcaraz, who enjoyed a career-best 2025 with multiple titles and two Grand Slams, is overwhelming favorite as he chases a place in history with a potential Career Grand Slam at 22.
Fixture Snapshot
Fixture: Carlos Alcaraz vs Adam Walton Date: January 18, 2026 Round: First Round (Round of 128) Venue: Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia Surface: Hard Prize Money: A$111,500,000
Form Guide
Alcaraz arrives off a sensational 2025 campaign — eight titles from 11 finals, including two Majors and three Masters 1000s — and finished the year ranked No. 1. He skipped ATP lead-up events, opting for exhibition matches where he beat top opponents, showing sharpness without the grind of tour-level preparation.
Walton’s start to the season has been underwhelming, exiting early in Brisbane and failing to qualify in Adelaide. His 2025 record was 13-20 with a highlight semifinal at Los Cabos, and his overall main-tour record sits around 16-32. Walton has routinely struggled to translate home-crowd expectation into deep Major runs.
Head-to-Head and Match Outlook
Alcaraz leads the pair’s rivalry 1-0, with a straight-sets win at Queen’s Club in 2025. Key factors favoring Alcaraz include a superior 2025 win-loss record (71-9), mental edge in majors — he has never lost in a Grand Slam first round — and overall experience at big events. Walton’s Australian hopes hinge on handling home pressure and elevating his serve and return games against a near-flawless opponent.
Alcaraz is on the cusp of making history: should he progress and later complete a Career Grand Slam in Melbourne, he would become the youngest man to do so at 22, eclipsing Rafael Nadal’s mark.
Prediction & Betting Tips
Match Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz to win in straight sets. The quality gap and Alcaraz’s Grand Slam consistency make a comfortable opening-round victory most likely.
Betting Tips
Tip 1: Match to have at least 22 games (consider over 21.5 games). Tip 2: Alcaraz to win at least one set 6-1.
These markets offer more value than the moneyline, where Alcaraz will be heavily backed. Consider set and games markets or small handicap options for better returns.
English-born WTA prospect falls just short of $1 million at One Point Slam
Fixture: (1) Carlos Alcaraz vs Adam Walton
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