Four teams fight for the final two Olympic curling semifinal spots: Great Britain needs Norway or Italy to lose, while the U.S. can sneak in via the draw-shot challenge or head-to-head tiebreakers. Betting angle: back Switzerland/Canada for top finish; consider value bets on Norway/Italy upsets or a longshot U.S. playoff entry driven by DSC advantage.
Olympic men's curling down to a dramatic final draw
Reigning world champion Team Bruce Mouat (5-4) sits on the cusp of the Olympics semifinals but does not control its destiny. Mouat is idle for the final round-robin draw and needs either Norway or Italy to lose to clinch a playoff berth.
Key matchups that decide the field
Norway's Team Magnus Ramsfjell (4-4) meets Canada's Team Brad Jacobs (7-1), while Italy's Team Joel Retornaz (4-4) faces Switzerland's Team Yannick Schwaller (8-0). Switzerland is locked into first place and Canada is guaranteed second, leaving little at stake for those two teams beyond momentum heading into the knockouts.
Playoff permutations and the decisive draw shot challenge
If Norway and Italy both win, they advance and Great Britain is eliminated. If both lose, Great Britain moves into the No. 3 spot and Team Daniel Casper of the U.S. (4-5) could sneak into the fourth playoff slot.
A three-way tie scenario hinges on the draw shot challenge (DSC), a cumulative measure used to rank teams in tiebreaker situations. The U.S. currently holds a slightly better DSC than Italy; Norway trails both. If the U.S. remains ahead of Italy in the DSC and Norway and Italy lose, the Americans would reach the semifinals with a losing record.
Alternate route for the U.S.
There is one path that avoids DSC calculations: if Italy and Norway both lose and Germany (3-5) defeats China (2-6), the Americans would advance based on head-to-head records among the teams tied at 4-5. The U.S. and Germany would lead that comparison, with the U.S. owning the head-to-head edge over Germany.
Recent form and what to watch
The U.S. suffered a heavy 9-2 loss to Great Britain, a result that dented its odds heading into the final draw. Great Britain will not play in the last session, while other teams fight for the remaining playoff spots.
Betting angles and punter considerations
With Switzerland and Canada effectively locked into the top two positions, punters should view those teams as favorites for medal contention. Value can be found in upset markets: backing Norway or Italy to beat stronger opponents offers upside, and longshot bettors might target a U.S. playoff entry via DSC or head-to-head scenarios.
Men’s Olympic ice hockey: Canada remains favorite to win gold according to Kalshi predictions
Monitor live lines as results in the final draw will swing markets quickly.
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